Mean Reversion indicator

Fibonacci Pivots: what it's actually best at

Fibonacci Pivots is an oscillator rule in our mean reversion family — it reads a bounded momentum gauge and takes exposure when it turns from an extreme. We publish where it holds up and where it fails, with the out-of-sample numbers; the exact settings we tested stay in the engine.

Tested and published by IndicatorEdge · backtest grid generated 2026-06-25 · base rates recomputed 2026-07-31 · how we test

28 of 903

assets where it was the #1 edge

on the other 875, a different indicator did better

0.06

average Sharpe across all tests

median across all 382 indicators is 0.25 — this one ranks above 26 of them

Mean Reversion

indicator family

Base rate

How often Fibonacci Pivots beat buy-and-hold

409 of 1,852 out-of-sample tests beat simply buying and holding the same asset — 22.1%. On the other 1,443 it did not. That is above the 20.1% rate across all 382 indicators we test (one pooled rate over all 660,005 tests we have run, not a mean of the per-indicator rates).

Each test is one asset on one timeframe: 1,852 of them, drawn from 903 assets across up to 4 timeframes. Not every asset has usable history on every timeframe, so that total is the grid we could actually run — it is not 903 × 4, and we do not pad it with tests we did not do. "Beat" means a higher return than holding that same asset over that same window. Measured out-of-sample — on data the setup was not chosen on.

Picking the single best timeframe for each asset after the fact raises it to 32.0% (289/903 assets). That number is the one worth distrusting: choosing the timeframe once you already know the answer is how backtests flatter themselves. Every indicator, ranked by this number

What's on this page — and what isn't

We publish the verdict: the indicator's name, the assets and timeframes it holds up on, and the honest numbers for both its wins and its failures. We do not publish the recipe — the settings, lengths and thresholds we tested. That is the part worth paying for, and republishing it would just add one more free indicator to a market that already has thousands. Everything you need to judge whether Fibonacci Pivots is worth your attention is below; everything you'd need to clone it is not.

Best fits

Assets where Fibonacci Pivots won

A7A5 (A7A5) +64.6%-6% drawdown · 44 trades · 1.5y Shiba Inu (SHIB) +120.1%-50% drawdown · 210 trades · 7.5y The Graph +749.3% artifact-94% drawdown · 105 trades · 2.6y United Stables (U) +518.8% artifact-82% drawdown · 115 trades · 3.0y 3x Biotech Bull +45.1%-72% drawdown · 489 trades · 11.1y EUR/GBP +2.7%-8% drawdown · 244 trades · 27.5y Abbott Laboratories (ABT) -4.2%-33% drawdown · 366 trades · 46.4y Airbnb (ABNB) +21.7%-30% drawdown · 49 trades · 5.5y American Express (AXP) -0.3%-43% drawdown · 460 trades · 54.2y Celsius +242.1% artifact-92% drawdown · 766 trades · 19.4y Cintas (CTAS) -2.1%-40% drawdown · 1687 trades · 42.8y Deckers Brands (DECK) +12.6%-87% drawdown · 1350 trades · 32.6y

Entries marked artifact are incoherent rather than merely risky — an annualised return above 200% (illiquidity compounding on a short history), or a drawdown at total loss, where no positive return is possible afterwards. They are shown rather than quietly dropped, because deleting your own bad rows is how the numbers on every other site got so good.

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Fibonacci Pivots: what it's actually best at

How often Fibonacci Pivots beat buy-and-hold

Assets where Fibonacci Pivots won

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