The best indicator for Erie Indemnity (ERIE)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Erie Indemnity (ERIE) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Fibonacci Pivots
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Erie Indemnity (ERIE) over ~30.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 14.5% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Erie Indemnity (ERIE) — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.9% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Daily | 26.4% | 1.33 | -30.5% | 48.8% | 1161 | 14.5% |
| 2 | Camarilla Pivots ✓ | Daily | 27.0% | 1.29 | -44.5% | 46.9% | 1632 | 15.2% |
| 3 | Pivot Points (Standard) ✓ | Daily | 21.4% | 1.18 | -30.8% | 49.6% | 1042 | 9.6% |
| 4 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 12.0% | 0.68 | -44.0% | 62.3% | 183 | 0.2% |
| 5 | HalfTrend ✓ | Weekly | 10.3% | 0.64 | -51.2% | 54.8% | 31 | -1.2% |
| 6 | TSI (13,7) ✓ | Weekly | 10.7% | 0.64 | -46.3% | 50.0% | 42 | -0.8% |
| 7 | Kaufman Adaptive MA ✓ | Weekly | 10.3% | 0.63 | -42.8% | 47.5% | 99 | -1.3% |
| 8 | Supertrend (7,3) ✓ | Weekly | 10.0% | 0.63 | -57.6% | 68.8% | 16 | -1.5% |
| 9 | Half Trend ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.63 | -51.2% | 54.8% | 31 | -1.3% |
| 10 | Keltner Breakout ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.62 | -29.7% | 50.7% | 69 | -4.2% |
| 11 | Vortex ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.62 | -39.2% | 53.0% | 66 | -1.4% |
| 12 | Instantaneous Trendline ✓ | Weekly | 10.0% | 0.62 | -47.5% | 40.3% | 62 | -1.5% |
| 13 | Jurik MA (approx.) ✓ | Weekly | 9.1% | 0.62 | -29.3% | 49.3% | 140 | -2.5% |
| 14 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.62 | -31.9% | 50.0% | 110 | -1.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Erie Indemnity (ERIE), Fibonacci Pivots on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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