The best indicator for Erie Indemnity (ERIE)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Erie Indemnity (ERIE) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Erie Indemnity (ERIE) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Fibonacci Pivots
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Erie Indemnity (ERIE) over ~30.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 14.5% CAGR.
Erie Indemnity (ERIE) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Erie Indemnity (ERIE) — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.9% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Daily | 26.4% | 1.33 | -30.5% | 48.8% | 1161 | 14.5% |
| 2 | Camarilla Pivots ✓ | Daily | 27.0% | 1.29 | -44.5% | 46.9% | 1632 | 15.2% |
| 3 | Pivot Points (Standard) ✓ | Daily | 21.4% | 1.18 | -30.8% | 49.6% | 1042 | 9.6% |
| 4 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 12.0% | 0.68 | -44.0% | 62.3% | 183 | 0.2% |
| 5 | HalfTrend ✓ | Weekly | 10.3% | 0.64 | -51.2% | 54.8% | 31 | -1.2% |
| 6 | TSI (13,7) ✓ | Weekly | 10.7% | 0.64 | -46.3% | 50.0% | 42 | -0.8% |
| 7 | Kaufman Adaptive MA ✓ | Weekly | 10.3% | 0.63 | -42.8% | 47.5% | 99 | -1.3% |
| 8 | Supertrend (7,3) ✓ | Weekly | 10.0% | 0.63 | -57.6% | 68.8% | 16 | -1.5% |
| 9 | Half Trend ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.63 | -51.2% | 54.8% | 31 | -1.3% |
| 10 | Keltner Breakout ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.62 | -29.7% | 50.7% | 69 | -4.2% |
| 11 | Vortex ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.62 | -39.2% | 53.0% | 66 | -1.4% |
| 12 | Instantaneous Trendline ✓ | Weekly | 10.0% | 0.62 | -47.5% | 40.3% | 62 | -1.5% |
| 13 | Jurik MA (approx.) ✓ | Weekly | 9.1% | 0.62 | -29.3% | 49.3% | 140 | -2.5% |
| 14 | Parabolic SAR (fast) ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.62 | -31.9% | 50.0% | 110 | -1.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Erie Indemnity (ERIE)
256 of 645 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Erie Indemnity (ERIE) outright. Another 191 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 100 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI Trend (>50) | 2 | none needed | 2.66× |
| ADX / DMI | 2 | none needed | 3.42× |
| EMA 8/21 Cross | 2 | none needed | 2.6× |
| Vortex | 2 | none needed | 2.23× |
| Balance of Power | 2 | none needed | 2.13× |
| Accumulation/Distribution | 2 | none needed | 2.64× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Erie Indemnity (ERIE), Fibonacci Pivots on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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