Trend indicator

McGinley 200 Trend: what it's actually best at

McGinley 200 Trend is a trend-following rule — it holds while a smoothed trend reference is pointing up and goes flat when it turns. We publish where it holds up and where it fails, with the out-of-sample numbers; the exact settings we tested stay in the engine.

Tested and published by IndicatorEdge · backtest grid generated 2026-06-25 · base rates recomputed 2026-07-31 · how we test

6 of 692

assets where it was the #1 edge

on the other 686, a different indicator did better

0.33

average Sharpe across all tests

median across all 382 indicators is 0.25 — this one ranks above 315 of them

Trend

indicator family

Base rate

How often McGinley 200 Trend beat buy-and-hold

111 of 1,073 out-of-sample tests beat simply buying and holding the same asset — 10.3%. On the other 962 it did not. That is below the 20.1% rate across all 382 indicators we test (one pooled rate over all 660,005 tests we have run, not a mean of the per-indicator rates).

Each test is one asset on one timeframe: 1,073 of them, drawn from 692 assets across up to 4 timeframes. Not every asset has usable history on every timeframe, so that total is the grid we could actually run — it is not 692 × 4, and we do not pad it with tests we did not do. "Beat" means a higher return than holding that same asset over that same window. Measured out-of-sample — on data the setup was not chosen on.

Picking the single best timeframe for each asset after the fact raises it to 12.4% (86/692 assets). That number is the one worth distrusting: choosing the timeframe once you already know the answer is how backtests flatter themselves. Every indicator, ranked by this number

What's on this page — and what isn't

We publish the verdict: the indicator's name, the assets and timeframes it holds up on, and the honest numbers for both its wins and its failures. We do not publish the recipe — the settings, lengths and thresholds we tested. That is the part worth paying for, and republishing it would just add one more free indicator to a market that already has thousands. Everything you need to judge whether McGinley 200 Trend is worth your attention is below; everything you'd need to clone it is not.

Best fits

Assets where McGinley 200 Trend won

1-3Y Treasuries (SHY) -0.2%-5% drawdown · 26 trades · 23.8y High Dividend (VYM) +0.4%-25% drawdown · 22 trades · 19.5y DTE Energy (DTE) +0.5%-53% drawdown · 33 trades · 64.3y Procter & Gamble (PG) -0.1%-54% drawdown · 42 trades · 64.3y Walmart (WMT) +1.1%-51% drawdown · 15 trades · 53.8y Wells Fargo (WFC) -0.1%-79% drawdown · 23 trades · 54.0y

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McGinley 200 Trend: what it's actually best at

How often McGinley 200 Trend beat buy-and-hold

Assets where McGinley 200 Trend won

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