The best indicator for Airbnb (ABNB)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Airbnb (ABNB) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Airbnb (ABNB) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Fibonacci Pivots
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Airbnb (ABNB) over ~5.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 16.1% CAGR.
Airbnb (ABNB) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Airbnb (ABNB) — beating buy-and-hold by 6.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 18.6% | 0.79 | -29.7% | 58.8% | 51 | 16.1% |
| 2 | Pivot Points (Standard) ✓ | Weekly | 14.6% | 0.67 | -29.9% | 58.3% | 48 | 12.1% |
| 3 | Keltner Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 12.8% | 0.65 | -31.4% | 75.0% | 20 | 11.3% |
| 4 | MA Envelope ✓ | Weekly | 13.8% | 0.62 | -41.5% | 80.0% | 20 | 11.3% |
| 5 | VWAP Bands ✓ | Daily | 10.9% | 0.6 | -32.0% | 70.8% | 24 | 9.5% |
| 6 | Connors RSI ✓ | Weekly | 12.1% | 0.59 | -38.0% | 58.8% | 17 | 9.7% |
| 7 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Weekly | 9.8% | 0.56 | -32.8% | 68.8% | 16 | 7.4% |
| 8 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 11.6% | 0.67 | -28.0% | 83.3% | 12 | 10.2% |
| 9 | Demand Index ✓ | Weekly | 11.3% | 0.5 | -45.5% | 66.7% | 18 | 8.8% |
| 10 | Lorentzian Classification ✓ | Weekly | 9.8% | 0.5 | -39.5% | 37.8% | 45 | 7.3% |
| 11 | Supertrend (7,2) ✓ | Daily | 11.0% | 0.49 | -39.3% | 47.1% | 34 | 9.6% |
| 12 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 8.6% | 0.47 | -32.0% | 69.0% | 29 | 7.2% |
| 13 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Daily | 8.6% | 0.47 | -32.0% | 69.0% | 29 | 7.2% |
| 14 | SMC: Fair Value Gap ✓ | Daily | 10.1% | 0.46 | -46.2% | 44.0% | 75 | 8.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Airbnb (ABNB)
68 of 397 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Airbnb (ABNB) outright. Another 1 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 0 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parabolic SAR | 1 | none needed | 4.46× |
| TRIX | 1 | none needed | 4.03× |
| Know Sure Thing | 1 | none needed | 4.41× |
| Detrended Price Osc. | 1 | none needed | 4.74× |
| Connors RSI-2 | 1 | none needed | 4.81× |
| Fisher Transform | 1 | none needed | 5.32× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Airbnb (ABNB), Fibonacci Pivots on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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