The best indicator for Celsius
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Celsius history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Fibonacci Pivots
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Celsius over ~19.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 242.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Daily | 246.0% | 1.88 | -91.6% | 45.0% | 766 | 242.1% |
| 2 | Pivot Points (Standard) ✓ | Daily | 236.0% | 1.86 | -92.6% | 46.0% | 719 | 232.0% |
| 3 | Camarilla Pivots ✓ | Daily | 220.9% | 1.72 | -96.6% | 46.8% | 955 | 217.0% |
| 4 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 165.8% | 1.47 | -98.6% | 51.6% | 308 | 161.8% |
| 5 | Projection Bands ✓ | Daily | 93.1% | 1.17 | -93.1% | 55.1% | 198 | 89.2% |
| 6 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 53.9% | 0.91 | -91.1% | 51.3% | 228 | 49.9% |
| 7 | Lorentzian Classification | Daily | 44.6% | 0.91 | -80.4% | 45.8% | 812 | 40.7% |
| 8 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Daily | 46.4% | 0.85 | -87.3% | 55.2% | 230 | 42.5% |
| 9 | VWAP Bands ✓ | Daily | 42.4% | 0.81 | -91.8% | 55.6% | 99 | 38.5% |
| 10 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 36.8% | 0.75 | -99.6% | 66.7% | 72 | 32.9% |
| 11 | Balance of Power ✓ | Weekly | 35.5% | 0.74 | -71.2% | 55.3% | 47 | 31.3% |
| 12 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 33.4% | 0.72 | -79.2% | 65.5% | 84 | 29.4% |
| 13 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Daily | 33.4% | 0.72 | -79.2% | 65.5% | 84 | 29.4% |
| 14 | Ehlers Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 32.8% | 0.72 | -61.8% | 64.7% | 17 | 28.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Celsius, Fibonacci Pivots on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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