The best indicator for Celsius
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Celsius history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Celsius stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Fibonacci Pivots
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Celsius over ~19.7 years — beating buy-and-hold by 238.0% CAGR.
Celsius on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Daily | 241.8% | 1.87 | -91.6% | 44.9% | 778 | 238.0% |
| 2 | Pivot Points (Standard) ✓ | Daily | 231.8% | 1.85 | -92.6% | 45.8% | 730 | 228.0% |
| 3 | Camarilla Pivots ✓ | Daily | 220.3% | 1.72 | -96.6% | 46.7% | 970 | 216.5% |
| 4 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 166.2% | 1.48 | -98.6% | 51.8% | 313 | 162.4% |
| 5 | Projection Bands ✓ | Daily | 92.6% | 1.17 | -93.1% | 54.7% | 201 | 88.8% |
| 6 | Lorentzian Classification | Daily | 45.5% | 0.92 | -80.4% | 45.8% | 827 | 41.7% |
| 7 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 54.3% | 0.91 | -91.1% | 51.3% | 232 | 50.5% |
| 8 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Daily | 46.1% | 0.85 | -87.3% | 54.9% | 233 | 42.3% |
| 9 | VWAP Bands ✓ | Daily | 42.8% | 0.82 | -91.8% | 55.0% | 100 | 39.1% |
| 10 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 37.7% | 0.76 | -99.6% | 67.6% | 74 | 33.9% |
| 11 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 34.1% | 0.73 | -79.2% | 65.9% | 85 | 30.4% |
| 12 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Daily | 34.1% | 0.73 | -79.2% | 65.9% | 85 | 30.4% |
| 13 | Balance of Power ✓ | Weekly | 34.3% | 0.72 | -71.2% | 53.1% | 49 | 30.4% |
| 14 | Volume Flow Indicator ✓ | Daily | 29.3% | 0.71 | -66.5% | 41.7% | 36 | 25.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Celsius
67 of 575 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Celsius outright. Another 194 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 265 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Force Index | 1 | 1.09× | 1.98× |
| QQE | 1 | 1.11× | 1.31× |
| HLC Trend | 1 | 1.15× | 1.73× |
| Stochastic (20,5) | 1 | 1.29× | 1.98× |
| Stochastic Slow (21,5) | 1 | 1.41× | 1.94× |
| DEMA 30 Trend | 1 | 1.42× | 1.89× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Celsius, Fibonacci Pivots on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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