The best indicator for American Express (AXP)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real American Express (AXP) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where American Express (AXP) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Fibonacci Pivots
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for American Express (AXP) over ~54.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.3% CAGR.
American Express (AXP) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for American Express (AXP) — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.4% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 10.4% | 0.57 | -42.7% | 55.7% | 460 | -0.3% |
| 2 | Pivot Points (Standard) ✓ | Weekly | 9.9% | 0.55 | -41.9% | 56.5% | 418 | -0.9% |
| 3 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 11.4% | 0.51 | -61.6% | 31.4% | 105 | 0.6% |
| 4 | DEMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.5 | -40.7% | 54.7% | 53 | -2.3% |
| 5 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 8.4% | 0.49 | -55.7% | 66.2% | 677 | -2.4% |
| 6 | Camarilla Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 9.0% | 0.49 | -60.5% | 56.2% | 585 | -1.7% |
| 7 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 10.9% | 0.48 | -83.9% | 20.7% | 29 | 0.1% |
| 8 | TRIMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.48 | -41.5% | 51.7% | 29 | -2.6% |
| 9 | Ease of Movement ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.47 | -42.1% | 50.4% | 131 | -2.6% |
| 10 | Markov Regime ✓ | Daily | 10.3% | 0.47 | -83.9% | 48.9% | 280 | -0.5% |
| 11 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 8.7% | 0.46 | -59.8% | 69.4% | 255 | -2.1% |
| 12 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Weekly | 9.2% | 0.46 | -55.3% | 41.7% | 96 | -1.6% |
| 13 | KAMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.46 | -45.9% | 47.9% | 48 | -2.9% |
| 14 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.46 | -83.7% | 22.2% | 18 | -0.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on American Express (AXP)
0 of 711 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on American Express (AXP) outright. Another 130 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 482 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 2.39× | 3.18× |
| QQE | — | 1.44× | 2.16× |
| MA Envelope | — | 1.54× | 2.56× |
| Williams %R | — | 1.58× | 2.72× |
| Demand Index | — | 1.65× | 2.39× |
| WMA 200 Trend | — | 1.84× | 2.76× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For American Express (AXP), Fibonacci Pivots on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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