The best indicator for American Express (AXP)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real American Express (AXP) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Fibonacci Pivots
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for American Express (AXP) over ~54.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.3% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for American Express (AXP) — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.4% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 10.4% | 0.57 | -42.7% | 55.7% | 460 | -0.3% |
| 2 | Pivot Points (Standard) ✓ | Weekly | 9.9% | 0.55 | -41.9% | 56.5% | 418 | -0.9% |
| 3 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 11.4% | 0.51 | -61.6% | 31.4% | 105 | 0.6% |
| 4 | DEMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.5 | -40.7% | 54.7% | 53 | -2.3% |
| 5 | Connors RSI ✓ | Daily | 8.4% | 0.49 | -55.7% | 66.2% | 677 | -2.4% |
| 6 | Camarilla Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 9.0% | 0.49 | -60.5% | 56.2% | 585 | -1.7% |
| 7 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 10.9% | 0.48 | -83.9% | 20.7% | 29 | 0.1% |
| 8 | TRIMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.48 | -41.5% | 51.7% | 29 | -2.6% |
| 9 | Ease of Movement ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.47 | -42.1% | 50.4% | 131 | -2.6% |
| 10 | Markov Regime ✓ | Daily | 10.3% | 0.47 | -83.9% | 48.9% | 280 | -0.5% |
| 11 | Stochastic ✓ | Daily | 8.7% | 0.46 | -59.8% | 69.4% | 255 | -2.1% |
| 12 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Weekly | 9.2% | 0.46 | -55.3% | 41.7% | 96 | -1.6% |
| 13 | KAMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.46 | -45.9% | 47.9% | 48 | -2.9% |
| 14 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.46 | -83.7% | 22.2% | 18 | -0.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For American Express (AXP), Fibonacci Pivots on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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