The best indicator for Industrials (XLI)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Industrials (XLI) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
McGinley 100 Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Industrials (XLI) over ~27.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.5% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Industrials (XLI) — trailing buy-and-hold by 6.9% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 9.0% | 0.64 | -34.0% | 39.0% | 77 | -0.5% |
| 2 | Ulcer Index ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.64 | -17.7% | 57.6% | 33 | -3.4% |
| 3 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.63 | -30.5% | 44.0% | 25 | 0.0% |
| 4 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 9.7% | 0.62 | -34.1% | 37.5% | 32 | 0.2% |
| 5 | DEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.62 | -28.0% | 50.0% | 24 | -2.7% |
| 6 | Volatility Stop (ATR) ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.61 | -27.2% | 52.8% | 36 | -1.6% |
| 7 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Weekly | 7.9% | 0.59 | -36.3% | 45.8% | 59 | -1.4% |
| 8 | HalfTrend ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.58 | -26.1% | 66.7% | 30 | -2.0% |
| 9 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.2% | 0.57 | -35.3% | 39.6% | 53 | -2.3% |
| 10 | T3 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 5.8% | 0.57 | -24.6% | 44.1% | 59 | -3.7% |
| 11 | Markov Regime (Confirmed) ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.57 | -38.8% | 54.7% | 148 | -1.9% |
| 12 | Half Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.3% | 0.57 | -26.1% | 66.7% | 30 | -2.0% |
| 13 | KAMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.55 | -30.3% | 43.4% | 152 | -2.9% |
| 14 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.55 | -20.2% | 61.4% | 44 | -3.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Industrials (XLI), McGinley 100 Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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