The best indicator for Industrials (XLI)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Industrials (XLI) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Industrials (XLI) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
McGinley 100 Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Industrials (XLI) over ~27.7 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.5% CAGR.
Industrials (XLI) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Industrials (XLI) — trailing buy-and-hold by 6.9% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 8.8% | 0.63 | -34.0% | 39.0% | 77 | -0.5% |
| 2 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 9.1% | 0.62 | -30.3% | 44.0% | 25 | 0.1% |
| 3 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 9.5% | 0.61 | -34.1% | 37.5% | 32 | 0.2% |
| 4 | DEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.61 | -28.3% | 50.0% | 24 | -2.6% |
| 5 | Ulcer Index ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.59 | -18.1% | 57.1% | 35 | -3.7% |
| 6 | HalfTrend ✓ | Weekly | 7.5% | 0.58 | -25.6% | 63.3% | 30 | -1.6% |
| 7 | Half Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.58 | -25.6% | 63.3% | 30 | -1.7% |
| 8 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.57 | -36.9% | 47.5% | 59 | -1.4% |
| 9 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.56 | -35.3% | 39.6% | 53 | -2.2% |
| 10 | KAMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.55 | -30.3% | 43.4% | 152 | -2.7% |
| 11 | T3 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 5.6% | 0.55 | -24.6% | 44.1% | 59 | -3.7% |
| 12 | Chande Kroll Stop ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.54 | -33.6% | 52.3% | 65 | -0.9% |
| 13 | Disparity (50) ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.54 | -23.7% | 64.3% | 42 | -2.4% |
| 14 | Markov Regime (Confirmed) ✓ | Weekly | 6.9% | 0.54 | -38.8% | 55.2% | 154 | -2.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Industrials (XLI)
2 of 662 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Industrials (XLI) outright. Another 413 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 169 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zero-Lag LSMA | 1 | none needed | 3.97× |
| Markov Regime (Confirmed) | 1 | none needed | 2.66× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 2.25× | 4.74× |
| QQE | — | 1.18× | 3.21× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 1.24× | 4.16× |
| McGinley 30 Trend | — | 1.35× | 4.92× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Industrials (XLI), McGinley 100 Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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