The best indicator for -3x Nasdaq (SQQQ)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real -3x Nasdaq (SQQQ) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Buy & hold won
No indicator we tested beat simply holding -3x Nasdaq (SQQQ) out-of-sample. Honest answer: for this one, the edge is patience.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for -3x Nasdaq (SQQQ) — beating buy-and-hold by 56.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Order-Flow Reversion | Daily | -2.8% | -0.03 | -64.8% | 54.7% | 53 | 50.2% |
| 2 | Lorentzian Classification | Weekly | -0.8% | -0.06 | -31.9% | 28.6% | 21 | 52.0% |
| 3 | Ulcer Index | Weekly | -5.9% | -0.19 | -63.1% | 12.5% | 8 | 46.9% |
| 4 | Bullish Marubozu | Weekly | -4.0% | -0.14 | -60.3% | 27.3% | 11 | 48.8% |
| 5 | SMA 200 Trend | Daily | -5.9% | -0.15 | -67.5% | 9.1% | 11 | 47.2% |
| 6 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Daily | -6.1% | -0.15 | -71.2% | 48.5% | 66 | 47.0% |
| 7 | Elder-Ray | Daily | -4.1% | -0.15 | -69.4% | 41.9% | 229 | 48.9% |
| 8 | Fibonacci Bands | Daily | -6.1% | -0.15 | -71.2% | 48.5% | 66 | 47.0% |
| 9 | Schaff Trend Cycle | Daily | -3.9% | -0.17 | -61.4% | 50.4% | 127 | 49.1% |
| 10 | Hull MA 100 Trend | Weekly | -12.4% | -0.31 | -88.8% | 11.1% | 9 | 40.4% |
| 11 | Median MA | Weekly | -5.3% | -0.19 | -64.7% | 41.2% | 17 | 47.5% |
| 12 | KAMA 100 Trend | Weekly | -7.5% | -0.22 | -72.2% | 30.8% | 13 | 45.3% |
| 13 | McGinley 200 Trend | Weekly | -7.6% | -0.32 | -72.8% | 33.3% | 9 | 45.1% |
| 14 | CCI (50) | Weekly | -9.1% | -0.29 | -79.1% | 27.3% | 11 | 43.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
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