The best indicator for 1-3Y Treasuries (SHY)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 1-3Y Treasuries (SHY) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where 1-3Y Treasuries (SHY) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
McGinley 200 Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 1-3Y Treasuries (SHY) over ~23.8 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.2% CAGR.
1-3Y Treasuries (SHY) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for 1-3Y Treasuries (SHY) — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.8% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 1.8% | 1.27 | -4.7% | 23.1% | 26 | -0.2% |
| 2 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 1.7% | 1.22 | -3.0% | 28.2% | 39 | -0.3% |
| 3 | EMA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 1.6% | 1.2 | -2.2% | 50.0% | 28 | -0.4% |
| 4 | Elastic VW MA ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 1.19 | -1.9% | 56.5% | 23 | -0.1% |
| 5 | TRIX (9) ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 1.19 | -2.0% | 53.3% | 15 | -0.1% |
| 6 | WMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 1.7% | 1.19 | -2.9% | 38.9% | 18 | -0.3% |
| 7 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 1.19 | -2.3% | 45.0% | 20 | -0.1% |
| 8 | PMax ✓ | Daily | 1.5% | 1.19 | -2.1% | 59.3% | 27 | -0.4% |
| 9 | Trend Intensity Index ✓ | Daily | 1.5% | 1.18 | -2.3% | 50.0% | 32 | -0.5% |
| 10 | ALMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 1.6% | 1.18 | -2.4% | 47.4% | 19 | -0.3% |
| 11 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 1.7% | 1.17 | -2.4% | 50.0% | 16 | -0.2% |
| 12 | VIDYA ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 1.17 | -2.3% | 43.5% | 23 | -0.2% |
| 13 | Linear Regression Slope ✓ | Weekly | 1.7% | 1.16 | -2.2% | 63.2% | 19 | -0.2% |
| 14 | Even Better Sinewave ✓ | Weekly | 1.7% | 1.16 | -2.1% | 70.6% | 17 | -0.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on 1-3Y Treasuries (SHY)
25 of 554 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on 1-3Y Treasuries (SHY) outright. Another 263 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 7 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| CMO (21) | 1 | 4.0× | 25.1× |
| KAMA 100 Trend | 1 | 4.0× | 30.88× |
| TRIMA 30 Trend | 1 | 4.0× | 34.92× |
| CCI (30) | 1 | 4.0× | 24.9× |
| Coppock (fast) | 1 | 5.0× | 29.09× |
| ROC (20) | 1 | 6.67× | 21.88× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For 1-3Y Treasuries (SHY), McGinley 200 Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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