The best indicator for 20Y Treasuries (TLT)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 20Y Treasuries (TLT) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
TEMA 10/30 Cross
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 20Y Treasuries (TLT) over ~23.9 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.9% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for 20Y Treasuries (TLT) — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.51 | -20.1% | 54.8% | 42 | 0.9% |
| 2 | Hull MA Trend ✓ | Weekly | 4.1% | 0.45 | -21.5% | 61.4% | 57 | 0.5% |
| 3 | Vortex (7) ✓ | Weekly | 4.1% | 0.45 | -18.7% | 47.4% | 78 | 0.6% |
| 4 | VuManChu Cipher B ✓ | Weekly | 3.5% | 0.45 | -10.9% | 50.0% | 74 | -0.1% |
| 5 | SMC: Fair Value Gap ✓ | Weekly | 4.0% | 0.45 | -21.2% | 48.3% | 58 | 0.5% |
| 6 | Percentage Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 3.9% | 0.44 | -20.1% | 51.2% | 43 | 0.4% |
| 7 | PPO Cross ✓ | Weekly | 3.9% | 0.44 | -20.1% | 51.2% | 43 | 0.4% |
| 8 | DEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.9% | 0.42 | -17.4% | 46.3% | 95 | 0.2% |
| 9 | T3 15/60 Cross ✓ | Daily | 3.9% | 0.42 | -26.0% | 47.7% | 44 | 0.2% |
| 10 | MACD ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.42 | -20.1% | 53.5% | 43 | 0.2% |
| 11 | Aroon ✓ | Weekly | 3.9% | 0.42 | -24.5% | 47.6% | 42 | 0.4% |
| 12 | True Strength Index ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.42 | -18.3% | 52.3% | 44 | 0.1% |
| 13 | Ehlers Roofing Filter ✓ | Weekly | 3.6% | 0.42 | -24.2% | 45.5% | 22 | 0.0% |
| 14 | MACD-V ✓ | Weekly | 3.7% | 0.42 | -17.4% | 55.8% | 43 | 0.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For 20Y Treasuries (TLT), TEMA 10/30 Cross on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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