The best indicator for High Dividend (VYM)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real High Dividend (VYM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
McGinley 200 Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for High Dividend (VYM) over ~19.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.4% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for High Dividend (VYM) — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 9.7% | 0.75 | -24.7% | 36.4% | 22 | 0.4% |
| 2 | Linear Regression Slope ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.73 | -21.5% | 65.0% | 20 | -1.6% |
| 3 | Correlation Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.73 | -21.5% | 65.0% | 20 | -1.6% |
| 4 | MAMA / FAMA ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.7 | -19.8% | 61.1% | 18 | -1.6% |
| 5 | G-Channel ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.7 | -17.1% | 60.0% | 20 | -0.8% |
| 6 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.4% | 0.69 | -21.1% | 47.2% | 36 | -1.9% |
| 7 | EMA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.2% | 0.69 | -22.8% | 55.6% | 27 | -2.1% |
| 8 | Twiggs Money Flow ✓ | Weekly | 8.1% | 0.69 | -21.1% | 62.5% | 32 | -1.1% |
| 9 | WMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.72 | -19.9% | 57.1% | 14 | -1.6% |
| 10 | WMA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.8% | 0.67 | -19.0% | 51.2% | 43 | -2.5% |
| 11 | Ichimoku TK Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.67 | -22.0% | 71.4% | 21 | -2.1% |
| 12 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.3% | 0.67 | -21.8% | 61.9% | 21 | -1.0% |
| 13 | EMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.8% | 0.66 | -21.5% | 38.2% | 68 | -2.5% |
| 14 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.66 | -27.1% | 44.3% | 61 | -1.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For High Dividend (VYM), McGinley 200 Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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