The best indicator for High Dividend (VYM)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real High Dividend (VYM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where High Dividend (VYM) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
McGinley 200 Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for High Dividend (VYM) over ~19.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.4% CAGR.
High Dividend (VYM) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
Chart by TradingView. Loading it contacts tradingview.com, which may set its own cookies — see our privacy policy.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for High Dividend (VYM) — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 9.7% | 0.75 | -24.7% | 36.4% | 22 | 0.4% |
| 2 | Linear Regression Slope ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.73 | -21.5% | 65.0% | 20 | -1.6% |
| 3 | Correlation Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.73 | -21.5% | 65.0% | 20 | -1.6% |
| 4 | MAMA / FAMA ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.7 | -19.8% | 61.1% | 18 | -1.6% |
| 5 | G-Channel ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.7 | -17.1% | 60.0% | 20 | -0.8% |
| 6 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.4% | 0.69 | -21.1% | 47.2% | 36 | -1.9% |
| 7 | EMA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.2% | 0.69 | -22.8% | 55.6% | 27 | -2.1% |
| 8 | Twiggs Money Flow ✓ | Weekly | 8.1% | 0.69 | -21.1% | 62.5% | 32 | -1.1% |
| 9 | WMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.72 | -19.9% | 57.1% | 14 | -1.6% |
| 10 | WMA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.8% | 0.67 | -19.0% | 51.2% | 43 | -2.5% |
| 11 | Ichimoku TK Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.67 | -22.0% | 71.4% | 21 | -2.1% |
| 12 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.3% | 0.67 | -21.8% | 61.9% | 21 | -1.0% |
| 13 | EMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.8% | 0.66 | -21.5% | 38.2% | 68 | -2.5% |
| 14 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.66 | -27.1% | 44.3% | 61 | -1.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on High Dividend (VYM)
0 of 600 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on High Dividend (VYM) outright. Another 469 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 82 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 2.53× | 4.68× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 3.72× | 6.14× |
| QQE | — | 1.21× | 5.69× |
| Chande Kroll Stop | — | 1.35× | 5.2× |
| Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) | — | 1.51× | 5.92× |
| CCI (30) | — | 1.67× | 6.04× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For High Dividend (VYM), McGinley 200 Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More etf
Get alerted when High Dividend’s signal flips
We track High Dividend daily. Its backtested best indicator, McGinley 200 Trend (Daily), is long right now — we'll email you the moment that changes. Free, no spam, unsubscribe any time.