The best indicator for Semiconductors (SMH)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Semiconductors (SMH) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
TEMA 200 Trend
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Semiconductors (SMH) over ~26.1 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.8% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Semiconductors (SMH) — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.3% | 0.81 | -21.7% | 42.9% | 21 | 0.8% |
| 2 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 15.3% | 0.79 | -37.7% | 45.8% | 24 | 4.7% |
| 3 | Hull MA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 12.0% | 0.79 | -20.1% | 67.6% | 37 | 1.4% |
| 4 | Trend Regularity Adaptive MA ✓ | Weekly | 12.0% | 0.78 | -33.0% | 41.4% | 29 | 1.5% |
| 5 | MAMA / FAMA ✓ | Weekly | 14.4% | 0.77 | -33.9% | 54.5% | 22 | 3.9% |
| 6 | Even Better Sinewave ✓ | Weekly | 15.0% | 0.76 | -32.9% | 56.5% | 23 | 4.5% |
| 7 | T3 8/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 13.2% | 0.73 | -32.9% | 61.9% | 21 | 2.7% |
| 8 | TRIX (9) ✓ | Weekly | 13.6% | 0.73 | -44.3% | 63.6% | 22 | 3.1% |
| 9 | Linear Regression Slope ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.72 | -40.4% | 53.6% | 28 | 3.0% |
| 10 | Correlation Trend ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.72 | -40.4% | 53.6% | 28 | 3.0% |
| 11 | SMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.72 | -45.8% | 66.7% | 15 | 3.0% |
| 12 | FRAMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.5% | 0.72 | -34.3% | 50.0% | 116 | 1.0% |
| 13 | Ehlers TrendFlex ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.71 | -40.1% | 60.9% | 23 | 2.9% |
| 14 | ALMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.9% | 0.71 | -31.8% | 41.9% | 31 | 1.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Semiconductors (SMH), TEMA 200 Trend on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More etf
Get alerted when Semiconductors’s signal flips
We track Semiconductors daily. Its backtested best indicator, TEMA 200 Trend (Weekly), is long right now — we'll email you the moment that changes. Free, no spam, unsubscribe any time.