The best indicator for Semiconductors (SMH)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Semiconductors (SMH) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
TEMA 200 Trend
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Semiconductors (SMH) over ~26.1 years — beating buy-and-hold by 0.8% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Semiconductors (SMH) — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.3% | 0.81 | -21.7% | 42.9% | 21 | 0.8% |
| 2 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 15.3% | 0.79 | -37.7% | 45.8% | 24 | 4.7% |
| 3 | Hull MA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 12.0% | 0.79 | -20.1% | 67.6% | 37 | 1.4% |
| 4 | Trend Regularity Adaptive MA ✓ | Weekly | 12.0% | 0.78 | -33.0% | 41.4% | 29 | 1.5% |
| 5 | MAMA / FAMA ✓ | Weekly | 14.4% | 0.77 | -33.9% | 54.5% | 22 | 3.9% |
| 6 | Even Better Sinewave ✓ | Weekly | 15.0% | 0.76 | -32.9% | 56.5% | 23 | 4.5% |
| 7 | T3 8/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 13.2% | 0.73 | -32.9% | 61.9% | 21 | 2.7% |
| 8 | TRIX (9) ✓ | Weekly | 13.6% | 0.73 | -44.3% | 63.6% | 22 | 3.1% |
| 9 | Linear Regression Slope ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.72 | -40.4% | 53.6% | 28 | 3.0% |
| 10 | Correlation Trend ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.72 | -40.4% | 53.6% | 28 | 3.0% |
| 11 | SMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.72 | -45.8% | 66.7% | 15 | 3.0% |
| 12 | FRAMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.5% | 0.72 | -34.3% | 50.0% | 116 | 1.0% |
| 13 | Ehlers TrendFlex ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.71 | -40.1% | 60.9% | 23 | 2.9% |
| 14 | ALMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.9% | 0.71 | -31.8% | 41.9% | 31 | 1.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Semiconductors (SMH), TEMA 200 Trend on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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