The best indicator for SmallCap 600
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real SmallCap 600 history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where SmallCap 600 stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
CCI
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for SmallCap 600 over ~26.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.9% CAGR.
SmallCap 600 on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 7.3% | 0.63 | -31.3% | 83.9% | 31 | -2.9% |
| 2 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 9.9% | 0.62 | -26.8% | 55.0% | 20 | -0.2% |
| 3 | Supertrend (7,3) ✓ | Weekly | 7.2% | 0.55 | -25.4% | 70.6% | 17 | -3.0% |
| 4 | SMC: Liquidity Sweep ✓ | Weekly | 6.9% | 0.54 | -37.2% | 89.5% | 19 | -3.3% |
| 5 | Coppock Curve ✓ | Daily | 6.9% | 0.52 | -30.2% | 52.0% | 150 | -3.4% |
| 6 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.52 | -33.9% | 44.0% | 50 | -3.0% |
| 7 | VIDYA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.52 | -43.8% | 47.8% | 23 | -3.2% |
| 8 | TRIX (15) ✓ | Daily | 7.0% | 0.52 | -29.2% | 51.3% | 76 | -3.2% |
| 9 | EMA 13/48 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.8% | 0.51 | -29.0% | 41.2% | 68 | -3.5% |
| 10 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 8.3% | 0.51 | -42.2% | 53.1% | 32 | -1.9% |
| 11 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Weekly | 7.3% | 0.51 | -26.7% | 58.6% | 58 | -2.9% |
| 12 | Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.51 | -46.3% | 57.0% | 79 | -2.6% |
| 13 | Supertrend (14,4) ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.5 | -30.2% | 52.5% | 61 | -4.0% |
| 14 | Supertrend (10,3) ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.5 | -29.0% | 66.7% | 18 | -3.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on SmallCap 600
9 of 668 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on SmallCap 600 outright. Another 232 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 213 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | 2 | none needed | 2.47× |
| Volatility Stop (ATR) | 1 | 1.19× | 4.0× |
| Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) | 1 | 1.59× | 3.26× |
| Hull MA 10/40 Cross | 1 | 1.78× | 4.29× |
| TEMA 10/30 Cross | 1 | 2.35× | 4.19× |
| Parabolic SAR (fast) | 1 | 2.58× | 4.09× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For SmallCap 600, CCI on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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