The best indicator for Gold Miners (GDX)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Gold Miners (GDX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Gold Miners (GDX) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
DeMarker
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Gold Miners (GDX) over ~20.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 3.4% CAGR.
Gold Miners (GDX) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Gold Miners (GDX) — beating buy-and-hold by 1.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DeMarker ✓ | Daily | 8.6% | 0.45 | -69.4% | 69.0% | 71 | 3.4% |
| 2 | VWAP Bands ✓ | Daily | 7.7% | 0.45 | -59.2% | 77.3% | 88 | 2.5% |
| 3 | Demand Index ✓ | Weekly | 9.2% | 0.45 | -62.2% | 71.2% | 66 | 4.3% |
| 4 | MA Envelope ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.41 | -67.5% | 61.8% | 55 | 2.7% |
| 5 | Relative Vigor Index ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.4 | -50.0% | 55.4% | 74 | 2.5% |
| 6 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.4 | -76.4% | 56.7% | 171 | 2.2% |
| 7 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 6.2% | 0.39 | -47.2% | 73.3% | 86 | 1.0% |
| 8 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Daily | 6.2% | 0.39 | -47.2% | 73.3% | 86 | 1.0% |
| 9 | SMC: Liquidity Sweep ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.39 | -75.8% | 68.6% | 70 | 2.4% |
| 10 | WMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.38 | -37.3% | 47.8% | 67 | 1.6% |
| 11 | Camarilla Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 6.2% | 0.37 | -59.4% | 54.8% | 219 | 1.3% |
| 12 | Three White Soldiers ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.37 | -56.2% | 64.7% | 51 | 0.8% |
| 13 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.36 | -69.7% | 72.3% | 83 | 1.3% |
| 14 | Lorentzian Classification ✓ | Weekly | 6.0% | 0.36 | -59.8% | 52.7% | 150 | 1.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Gold Miners (GDX)
8 of 625 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Gold Miners (GDX) outright. Another 228 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 241 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMC: Fair Value Gap | 1 | 1.83× | 2.85× |
| Three White Soldiers | 1 | 3.13× | 3.32× |
| Elder Ray (Bull/Bear Power) | 1 | none needed | 2.64× |
| Disparity Index | 1 | none needed | 2.23× |
| Pretty Good Oscillator | 1 | none needed | 2.23× |
| Ehlers Cyber Cycle | 1 | none needed | 2.33× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Gold Miners (GDX), DeMarker on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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