The best indicator for Total Bond (BND)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Total Bond (BND) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Supertrend (14,4)
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Total Bond (BND) over ~19.1 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.5% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Total Bond (BND) — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Supertrend (14,4) ✓ | Daily | 2.5% | 0.73 | -6.7% | 53.5% | 43 | -0.5% |
| 2 | Premier Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.65 | -9.3% | 63.0% | 27 | -0.3% |
| 3 | Trend Regularity Adaptive MA ✓ | Weekly | 2.1% | 0.64 | -6.2% | 41.7% | 24 | -0.9% |
| 4 | SMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.3% | 0.64 | -6.4% | 53.3% | 15 | -0.7% |
| 5 | Coral Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.63 | -10.5% | 68.4% | 19 | -0.3% |
| 6 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.5% | 0.62 | -8.9% | 55.2% | 29 | -0.6% |
| 7 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 2.6% | 0.62 | -8.9% | 25.0% | 32 | -0.4% |
| 8 | Ehlers Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.62 | -10.3% | 52.9% | 17 | -0.4% |
| 9 | Disparity (100) ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.66 | -6.4% | 50.0% | 14 | -0.6% |
| 10 | Vortex ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.61 | -10.3% | 52.9% | 34 | -0.6% |
| 11 | Inverse Fisher RSI | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.61 | -9.4% | 57.7% | 26 | -0.4% |
| 12 | SMA 5/20 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.61 | -10.4% | 52.6% | 19 | -0.5% |
| 13 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.61 | -10.0% | 47.4% | 19 | -0.4% |
| 14 | TRIMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.1% | 0.61 | -6.7% | 60.0% | 15 | -0.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Total Bond (BND), Supertrend (14,4) on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More etf
Get the weekly edge report
The best-performing indicator per asset, what changed this week, and the honest caveats — straight to your inbox.