The best indicator for Total Bond (BND)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Total Bond (BND) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Total Bond (BND) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Supertrend (14,4)
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Total Bond (BND) over ~19.4 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.5% CAGR.
Total Bond (BND) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Total Bond (BND) — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Markov Regime | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.72 | -14.7% | 72.7% | 22 | -0.1% |
| 2 | Supertrend (14,4) ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.71 | -6.7% | 52.3% | 44 | -0.5% |
| 3 | HalfTrend ✓ | Weekly | 2.8% | 0.67 | -8.6% | 57.9% | 19 | -0.1% |
| 4 | SMC: Fair Value Gap ✓ | Weekly | 2.1% | 0.66 | -7.6% | 51.2% | 41 | -0.7% |
| 5 | Half Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.8% | 0.66 | -8.6% | 57.9% | 19 | -0.1% |
| 6 | Inverse Fisher RSI | Weekly | 2.6% | 0.63 | -9.0% | 53.8% | 26 | -0.2% |
| 7 | Trend Regularity Adaptive MA ✓ | Weekly | 2.0% | 0.63 | -5.2% | 43.5% | 23 | -0.8% |
| 8 | CCI Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.62 | -9.7% | 50.0% | 36 | -0.5% |
| 9 | Coral Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.62 | -10.8% | 63.2% | 19 | -0.3% |
| 10 | T3 8/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 2.0% | 0.62 | -6.6% | 61.1% | 18 | -0.8% |
| 11 | WMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.71 | -8.3% | 53.8% | 13 | -0.4% |
| 12 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 2.4% | 0.61 | -8.9% | 53.3% | 30 | -0.4% |
| 13 | Ehlers Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.61 | -10.3% | 52.9% | 17 | -0.3% |
| 14 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.6 | -10.2% | 45.0% | 20 | -0.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on Total Bond (BND) lost money across the out-of-sample window in 578 of 578 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For Total Bond (BND), Supertrend (14,4) on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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