The best indicator for Utilities (XLU)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Utilities (XLU) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Utilities (XLU) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Historical Volatility Regime
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Utilities (XLU) over ~27.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.9% CAGR.
Utilities (XLU) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Utilities (XLU) — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.8% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Historical Volatility Regime ✓ | Weekly | 5.1% | 0.62 | -15.3% | 60.0% | 35 | -1.9% |
| 2 | SMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.5% | 0.59 | -32.1% | 70.6% | 17 | 0.4% |
| 3 | SMC: Order Block ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.57 | -33.8% | 45.2% | 31 | -0.6% |
| 4 | Volatility Regime (VIX-style) ✓ | Weekly | 4.7% | 0.57 | -18.0% | 57.5% | 40 | -2.4% |
| 5 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.56 | -36.1% | 68.8% | 16 | 0.1% |
| 6 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Weekly | 5.5% | 0.52 | -25.9% | 64.8% | 54 | -1.6% |
| 7 | ALMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.49 | -30.0% | 23.1% | 26 | -1.7% |
| 8 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.48 | -36.1% | 50.0% | 16 | -1.1% |
| 9 | Ichimoku TK Cross ✓ | Weekly | 5.2% | 0.48 | -32.8% | 71.4% | 35 | -1.9% |
| 10 | Ulcer Index ✓ | Weekly | 3.8% | 0.48 | -21.6% | 51.4% | 35 | -3.3% |
| 11 | Lorentzian Classification ✓ | Weekly | 5.5% | 0.48 | -32.2% | 56.3% | 213 | -1.6% |
| 12 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 5.1% | 0.47 | -40.9% | 69.0% | 29 | -2.1% |
| 13 | SMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 5.6% | 0.47 | -32.1% | 64.0% | 25 | -1.5% |
| 14 | Guppy Multiple MA ✓ | Weekly | 5.5% | 0.47 | -34.8% | 64.7% | 17 | -1.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Utilities (XLU)
3 of 671 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Utilities (XLU) outright. Another 155 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 231 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detrended Price Osc. | 1 | none needed | 4.34× |
| Projection Bands | 1 | none needed | 6.47× |
| Price Momentum Oscillator | 1 | none needed | 4.72× |
| QQE | — | 1.2× | 3.23× |
| Demand Index | — | 1.51× | 3.21× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 1.59× | 4.81× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Utilities (XLU), Historical Volatility Regime on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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