The best indicator for Utilities (XLU)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Utilities (XLU) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Historical Volatility Regime
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Utilities (XLU) over ~27.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.8% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Utilities (XLU) — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.8% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Historical Volatility Regime ✓ | Weekly | 5.8% | 0.69 | -15.3% | 64.9% | 37 | -1.8% |
| 2 | Volatility Regime (VIX-style) ✓ | Weekly | 5.2% | 0.62 | -15.6% | 65.8% | 38 | -2.4% |
| 3 | SMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.5% | 0.6 | -32.1% | 66.7% | 18 | -0.1% |
| 4 | SMC: Order Block ✓ | Weekly | 6.8% | 0.6 | -35.1% | 46.4% | 28 | -0.8% |
| 5 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.5% | 0.58 | -36.1% | 68.8% | 16 | -0.1% |
| 6 | Money Flow Index ✓ | Daily | 6.0% | 0.53 | -40.1% | 75.9% | 29 | -1.7% |
| 7 | Ulcer Index ✓ | Weekly | 4.2% | 0.52 | -21.0% | 64.7% | 34 | -3.4% |
| 8 | Projection Bands ✓ | Weekly | 5.5% | 0.52 | -32.7% | 81.4% | 43 | -2.1% |
| 9 | Lorentzian Classification ✓ | Weekly | 6.2% | 0.52 | -31.5% | 56.9% | 211 | -1.4% |
| 10 | KAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.2% | 0.51 | -32.1% | 61.1% | 18 | -1.3% |
| 11 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.51 | -23.3% | 69.8% | 53 | -2.2% |
| 12 | ALMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.6% | 0.51 | -29.3% | 20.8% | 24 | -2.0% |
| 13 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.5 | -36.1% | 50.0% | 16 | -1.4% |
| 14 | Detrended Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.5 | -47.0% | 56.3% | 151 | -1.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Utilities (XLU), Historical Volatility Regime on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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