The best indicator for Technology (XLK)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Technology (XLK) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Technology (XLK) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
RSI (25)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Technology (XLK) over ~27.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.6% CAGR.
Technology (XLK) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Technology (XLK) — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RSI (25) ✓ | Weekly | 11.9% | 0.79 | -31.2% | 60.0% | 30 | 1.6% |
| 2 | ALMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 10.0% | 0.77 | -23.9% | 48.3% | 29 | -0.3% |
| 3 | RSI (21) ✓ | Weekly | 11.4% | 0.76 | -37.4% | 43.6% | 39 | 1.1% |
| 4 | Smoothed MA (Wilder) ✓ | Weekly | 11.4% | 0.75 | -41.3% | 41.5% | 41 | 1.2% |
| 5 | Trend Regularity Adaptive MA ✓ | Weekly | 9.9% | 0.73 | -27.2% | 55.8% | 43 | -0.4% |
| 6 | Disparity (50) ✓ | Weekly | 10.6% | 0.73 | -31.2% | 61.3% | 31 | 0.3% |
| 7 | G-Channel ✓ | Weekly | 11.1% | 0.73 | -38.9% | 48.1% | 27 | 0.8% |
| 8 | CCI (50) ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.71 | -31.2% | 61.5% | 26 | -0.1% |
| 9 | Relative Momentum Index ✓ | Weekly | 10.9% | 0.7 | -30.0% | 76.2% | 21 | 0.6% |
| 10 | Williams %R (28) ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.7 | -49.7% | 55.3% | 47 | -0.1% |
| 11 | Ichimoku TK Cross ✓ | Weekly | 9.5% | 0.69 | -40.1% | 54.2% | 24 | -0.8% |
| 12 | Balance of Power ✓ | Weekly | 10.7% | 0.69 | -32.9% | 55.7% | 61 | 0.4% |
| 13 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Weekly | 11.1% | 0.69 | -53.9% | 46.7% | 45 | 0.8% |
| 14 | VIDYA ✓ | Weekly | 10.2% | 0.68 | -40.9% | 53.3% | 45 | -0.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Technology (XLK)
1 of 635 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Technology (XLK) outright. Another 465 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 136 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | 1 | 1.2× | 3.12× |
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 1.74× | 3.95× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 1.33× | 4.48× |
| KAMA 200 Trend | — | 1.33× | 4.56× |
| Trend Regularity Adaptive MA | — | 1.37× | 4.73× |
| RSI (21) | — | 1.37× | 5.0× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Technology (XLK), RSI (25) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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