The best indicator for Min Volatility (USMV)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Min Volatility (USMV) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Chandelier Exit
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Min Volatility (USMV) over ~14.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.1% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Min Volatility (USMV) — trailing buy-and-hold by 8.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chandelier Exit ✓ | Daily | 7.5% | 0.82 | -13.1% | 50.0% | 104 | -4.1% |
| 2 | QQE ✓ | Weekly | 9.5% | 0.81 | -21.4% | 60.0% | 40 | -1.9% |
| 3 | Lorentzian Classification ✓ | Weekly | 9.4% | 0.78 | -30.3% | 71.4% | 91 | -2.0% |
| 4 | Supertrend Fast (10,2) | Weekly | 7.2% | 0.77 | -18.2% | 64.7% | 17 | -4.3% |
| 5 | Supertrend (10,2) | Weekly | 7.2% | 0.77 | -18.2% | 64.7% | 17 | -4.3% |
| 6 | Adaptive Supertrend ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.73 | -18.6% | 65.0% | 20 | -4.7% |
| 7 | Fibonacci Pivots ✓ | Weekly | 6.3% | 0.73 | -16.1% | 57.5% | 106 | -5.1% |
| 8 | Williams %R (28) ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.72 | -23.0% | 69.2% | 26 | -4.4% |
| 9 | RSI (30) ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.72 | -24.9% | 50.0% | 18 | -4.0% |
| 10 | Detrended Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 6.9% | 0.71 | -16.1% | 71.6% | 102 | -4.5% |
| 11 | G-Channel ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.71 | -14.5% | 45.3% | 86 | -5.0% |
| 12 | Predictive Ranges ✓ | Weekly | 6.9% | 0.71 | -23.2% | 56.7% | 30 | -4.5% |
| 13 | Vegas Tunnel ✓ | Daily | 6.0% | 0.7 | -18.2% | 48.0% | 50 | -5.6% |
| 14 | Chandelier Exit ✓ | Weekly | 6.9% | 0.7 | -21.5% | 63.6% | 22 | -4.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Min Volatility (USMV), Chandelier Exit on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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