The best indicator for 3x Small Cap Bear
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 3x Small Cap Bear history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Historical Volatility Regime
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 3x Small Cap Bear over ~17.7 years — beating buy-and-hold by 52.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger 50 (x2.5) Break | Daily | 0.7% | 0.15 | -49.5% | 40.0% | 35 | 51.4% |
| 2 | Choppiness Index | Daily | 0.4% | 0.13 | -61.8% | 32.6% | 43 | 51.1% |
| 3 | Historical Volatility Regime ✓ | Weekly | 1.5% | 0.17 | -27.5% | 12.5% | 8 | 52.0% |
| 4 | Range Filter | Weekly | -1.1% | 0.07 | -53.4% | 38.1% | 21 | 49.5% |
| 5 | Bullish Marubozu ✓ | Weekly | -0.3% | 0.07 | -67.8% | 38.5% | 13 | 50.2% |
| 6 | Schaff Trend Cycle ✓ | Daily | -1.4% | 0.04 | -65.0% | 47.2% | 127 | 49.3% |
| 7 | Keltner 10 (x1.5) | Weekly | -1.1% | 0.04 | -48.5% | 33.3% | 12 | 49.4% |
| 8 | Order-Flow Reversion | Daily | -1.9% | 0.03 | -61.8% | 54.4% | 57 | 48.9% |
| 9 | Tweezer Bottom | Daily | -2.1% | 0.03 | -58.4% | 34.5% | 110 | 48.6% |
| 10 | Relative Volume Spike | Daily | -2.5% | 0.02 | -57.5% | 26.3% | 19 | 48.2% |
| 11 | Relative Volatility Index ✓ | Weekly | -5.5% | 0.02 | -85.1% | 27.3% | 22 | 45.0% |
| 12 | Morning Star ✓ | Weekly | -3.3% | 0.02 | -69.6% | 31.0% | 29 | 47.2% |
| 13 | Keltner 20 Break | Weekly | -1.3% | 0.02 | -54.0% | 50.0% | 8 | 49.2% |
| 14 | Trend Regularity Adaptive MA | Weekly | -4.4% | 0.01 | -70.0% | 30.0% | 20 | 46.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For 3x Small Cap Bear, Historical Volatility Regime on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More etf
Get the weekly edge report
The best-performing indicator per asset, what changed this week, and the honest caveats — straight to your inbox.