The best indicator for 3x Small Cap Bear
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 3x Small Cap Bear history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where 3x Small Cap Bear stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Historical Volatility Regime
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 3x Small Cap Bear over ~17.9 years — beating buy-and-hold by 49.8% CAGR.
3x Small Cap Bear on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bollinger 50 (x2.5) Break | Daily | 0.7% | 0.14 | -49.5% | 40.0% | 35 | 50.3% |
| 2 | Choppiness Index | Daily | 0.1% | 0.12 | -61.8% | 31.1% | 45 | 49.7% |
| 3 | Historical Volatility Regime ✓ | Weekly | 0.4% | 0.1 | -27.5% | 11.1% | 9 | 49.8% |
| 4 | Schaff Trend Cycle ✓ | Daily | -1.4% | 0.05 | -65.0% | 48.1% | 129 | 48.3% |
| 5 | Range Filter | Weekly | -1.5% | 0.05 | -55.1% | 38.1% | 21 | 47.9% |
| 6 | Order-Flow Reversion | Daily | -1.6% | 0.04 | -61.8% | 53.4% | 58 | 48.0% |
| 7 | Tweezer Bottom | Daily | -2.1% | 0.03 | -58.4% | 34.5% | 113 | 47.5% |
| 8 | Relative Volatility Index ✓ | Weekly | -5.0% | 0.03 | -85.5% | 28.0% | 25 | 44.4% |
| 9 | Keltner 10 (x1.5) | Weekly | -1.2% | 0.03 | -49.3% | 27.3% | 11 | 48.2% |
| 10 | Bullish Marubozu ✓ | Weekly | -1.3% | 0.02 | -67.8% | 35.7% | 14 | 48.1% |
| 11 | Keltner 20 Break | Weekly | -1.3% | 0.02 | -53.9% | 50.0% | 8 | 48.1% |
| 12 | Relative Volume Spike | Daily | -2.5% | 0.01 | -57.5% | 26.3% | 19 | 47.2% |
| 13 | Morning Star ✓ | Weekly | -3.7% | 0.01 | -69.9% | 30.0% | 30 | 45.6% |
| 14 | RSI Mean-Reversion | Daily | -3.9% | -0.0 | -83.0% | 60.0% | 30 | 45.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on 3x Small Cap Bear lost money across the out-of-sample window in 552 of 552 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For 3x Small Cap Bear, Historical Volatility Regime on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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