The best indicator for 3x S&P Bear
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 3x S&P Bear history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Schaff Trend Cycle
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 3x S&P Bear over ~17.1 years — beating buy-and-hold by 44.1% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schaff Trend Cycle ✓ | Weekly | 1.9% | 0.19 | -20.9% | 47.1% | 17 | 44.1% |
| 2 | Bullish Harami ✓ | Daily | 0.2% | 0.11 | -55.7% | 37.0% | 127 | 42.7% |
| 3 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Daily | -0.8% | 0.04 | -63.3% | 50.0% | 66 | 41.6% |
| 4 | Fibonacci Bands | Daily | -0.8% | 0.04 | -63.3% | 50.0% | 66 | 41.6% |
| 5 | Hammer | Daily | -1.6% | 0.02 | -60.1% | 36.1% | 61 | 40.8% |
| 6 | Piercing Line | Weekly | -0.6% | -0.01 | -22.3% | 50.0% | 10 | 41.7% |
| 7 | T3 200 Trend | Daily | -2.9% | -0.06 | -53.8% | 36.4% | 11 | 39.5% |
| 8 | Keltner Mean-Reversion | Daily | -3.1% | -0.07 | -57.7% | 46.3% | 67 | 39.4% |
| 9 | Order-Flow Reversion | Daily | -2.4% | -0.1 | -58.5% | 43.8% | 48 | 40.0% |
| 10 | Impulse MACD | Daily | -8.5% | -0.14 | -79.8% | 33.3% | 90 | 33.9% |
| 11 | Gator Oscillator | Weekly | -1.9% | -0.28 | -29.4% | 12.5% | 8 | 40.3% |
| 12 | Median MA | Daily | -9.4% | -0.16 | -88.6% | 35.4% | 158 | 33.0% |
| 13 | Donchian 100 Break | Daily | -14.1% | -0.32 | -93.6% | 0.0% | 8 | 28.4% |
| 14 | Inside-Bar Breakout | Weekly | -3.3% | -0.32 | -43.6% | 33.3% | 9 | 39.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For 3x S&P Bear, Schaff Trend Cycle on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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