The best indicator for 3x S&P Bear
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 3x S&P Bear history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where 3x S&P Bear stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Schaff Trend Cycle
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 3x S&P Bear over ~17.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 43.9% CAGR.
3x S&P Bear on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schaff Trend Cycle ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 0.19 | -20.9% | 44.4% | 18 | 43.9% |
| 2 | Bullish Harami ✓ | Daily | 0.1% | 0.1 | -56.5% | 36.9% | 130 | 42.4% |
| 3 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | Daily | -0.6% | 0.05 | -63.3% | 50.7% | 67 | 41.7% |
| 4 | Fibonacci Bands | Daily | -0.6% | 0.05 | -63.3% | 50.7% | 67 | 41.7% |
| 5 | Hammer | Daily | -2.0% | -0.01 | -60.9% | 34.4% | 61 | 40.3% |
| 6 | Piercing Line | Weekly | -0.7% | -0.03 | -22.3% | 54.5% | 11 | 41.4% |
| 7 | T3 200 Trend | Daily | -2.9% | -0.06 | -53.8% | 36.4% | 11 | 39.4% |
| 8 | Keltner Mean-Reversion | Daily | -2.8% | -0.06 | -57.7% | 47.1% | 68 | 39.5% |
| 9 | Order-Flow Reversion | Daily | -2.2% | -0.08 | -58.5% | 44.9% | 49 | 40.1% |
| 10 | Impulse MACD | Daily | -8.4% | -0.14 | -79.8% | 33.3% | 90 | 33.9% |
| 11 | Gator Oscillator | Weekly | -1.9% | -0.28 | -29.4% | 12.5% | 8 | 40.2% |
| 12 | Inside-Bar Breakout | Weekly | -2.9% | -0.28 | -39.5% | 37.5% | 8 | 39.3% |
| 13 | Donchian 100 Break | Daily | -13.9% | -0.32 | -93.6% | 0.0% | 8 | 28.4% |
| 14 | Median MA | Daily | -10.1% | -0.19 | -88.6% | 35.2% | 162 | 32.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on 3x S&P Bear lost money across the out-of-sample window in 512 of 512 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For 3x S&P Bear, Schaff Trend Cycle on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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