The best indicator for 3x Semis Bear
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 3x Semis Bear history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where 3x Semis Bear stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Schaff Trend Cycle
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 3x Semis Bear over ~16.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 70.3% CAGR.
3x Semis Bear on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schaff Trend Cycle ✓ | Daily | -1.5% | 0.08 | -48.4% | 48.0% | 123 | 70.3% |
| 2 | Gator Oscillator | Weekly | -2.7% | -0.04 | -67.0% | 20.0% | 10 | 68.9% |
| 3 | Connors RSI-2 | Daily | -13.8% | -0.07 | -95.2% | 50.0% | 220 | 57.9% |
| 4 | Bullish Harami | Weekly | -12.1% | -0.07 | -88.5% | 28.6% | 42 | 59.4% |
| 5 | Trend-Gated Asymmetric | Daily | -6.6% | -0.2 | -68.6% | 0.0% | 8 | 65.2% |
| 6 | Ichimoku TK Cross | Weekly | -15.0% | -0.2 | -94.6% | 11.1% | 9 | 56.5% |
| 7 | Hammer | Weekly | -8.6% | -0.12 | -88.0% | 25.0% | 16 | 62.9% |
| 8 | Williams %R (50) | Weekly | -8.2% | -0.23 | -75.7% | 62.5% | 8 | 63.3% |
| 9 | Ulcer Index | Weekly | -11.1% | -0.24 | -85.5% | 12.5% | 8 | 60.4% |
| 10 | Median MA | Weekly | -8.0% | -0.13 | -87.2% | 31.6% | 19 | 63.6% |
| 11 | Predictive Ranges | Weekly | -5.9% | -0.22 | -69.7% | 20.0% | 10 | 65.7% |
| 12 | Schaff Trend Cycle | Weekly | -7.9% | -0.25 | -74.1% | 33.3% | 9 | 63.6% |
| 13 | KAMA 200 Trend | Weekly | -10.7% | -0.31 | -84.2% | 25.0% | 8 | 60.9% |
| 14 | Bollinger 30 (x2.0) Break | Weekly | -9.3% | -0.29 | -82.2% | 55.6% | 9 | 62.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on 3x Semis Bear lost money across the out-of-sample window in 501 of 501 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For 3x Semis Bear, Schaff Trend Cycle on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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