The best indicator for 3x Semis (SOXL)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 3x Semis (SOXL) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Disparity (20)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 3x Semis (SOXL) over ~16.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 3.6% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for 3x Semis (SOXL) — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Disparity (20) ✓ | Weekly | 45.8% | 0.96 | -45.1% | 48.9% | 45 | 3.6% |
| 2 | CCI (30) ✓ | Weekly | 45.6% | 0.94 | -59.6% | 57.1% | 21 | 3.4% |
| 3 | HLC Trend ✓ | Weekly | 43.8% | 0.94 | -45.4% | 45.2% | 42 | 1.6% |
| 4 | RSI (9) ✓ | Weekly | 43.8% | 0.93 | -48.9% | 45.1% | 51 | 1.6% |
| 5 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 42.4% | 0.9 | -75.0% | 73.9% | 46 | 0.1% |
| 6 | Ehlers Decycler ✓ | Weekly | 41.6% | 0.9 | -52.5% | 46.9% | 49 | -0.6% |
| 7 | Volume-Weighted EMA ✓ | Weekly | 43.1% | 0.9 | -59.6% | 44.9% | 49 | 0.9% |
| 8 | CCI Trend ✓ | Weekly | 40.3% | 0.89 | -55.0% | 45.5% | 33 | -1.9% |
| 9 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Weekly | 42.2% | 0.89 | -61.3% | 56.8% | 37 | -0.0% |
| 10 | Fractal Adaptive MA ✓ | Weekly | 37.4% | 0.89 | -58.8% | 57.3% | 96 | -4.8% |
| 11 | Historical Volatility Regime ✓ | Weekly | 34.6% | 0.89 | -47.9% | 61.9% | 21 | -7.6% |
| 12 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Weekly | 42.2% | 0.89 | -61.3% | 56.8% | 37 | -0.0% |
| 13 | Ease of Movement ✓ | Weekly | 41.3% | 0.88 | -65.9% | 48.4% | 31 | -0.9% |
| 14 | Price Volume Trend ✓ | Weekly | 41.2% | 0.87 | -71.4% | 46.8% | 47 | -1.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For 3x Semis (SOXL), Disparity (20) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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