The best indicator for 3x Semis (SOXL)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 3x Semis (SOXL) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where 3x Semis (SOXL) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Disparity (20)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 3x Semis (SOXL) over ~16.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 3.6% CAGR.
3x Semis (SOXL) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for 3x Semis (SOXL) — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Disparity (20) ✓ | Weekly | 45.8% | 0.96 | -45.1% | 48.9% | 45 | 3.6% |
| 2 | CCI (30) ✓ | Weekly | 45.6% | 0.94 | -59.6% | 57.1% | 21 | 3.4% |
| 3 | HLC Trend ✓ | Weekly | 43.8% | 0.94 | -45.4% | 45.2% | 42 | 1.6% |
| 4 | RSI (9) ✓ | Weekly | 43.8% | 0.93 | -48.9% | 45.1% | 51 | 1.6% |
| 5 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 42.4% | 0.9 | -75.0% | 73.9% | 46 | 0.1% |
| 6 | Ehlers Decycler ✓ | Weekly | 41.6% | 0.9 | -52.5% | 46.9% | 49 | -0.6% |
| 7 | Volume-Weighted EMA ✓ | Weekly | 43.1% | 0.9 | -59.6% | 44.9% | 49 | 0.9% |
| 8 | CCI Trend ✓ | Weekly | 40.3% | 0.89 | -55.0% | 45.5% | 33 | -1.9% |
| 9 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Weekly | 42.2% | 0.89 | -61.3% | 56.8% | 37 | -0.0% |
| 10 | Fractal Adaptive MA ✓ | Weekly | 37.4% | 0.89 | -58.8% | 57.3% | 96 | -4.8% |
| 11 | Historical Volatility Regime ✓ | Weekly | 34.6% | 0.89 | -47.9% | 61.9% | 21 | -7.6% |
| 12 | Random Walk Index ✓ | Weekly | 42.2% | 0.89 | -61.3% | 56.8% | 37 | -0.0% |
| 13 | Ease of Movement ✓ | Weekly | 41.3% | 0.88 | -65.9% | 48.4% | 31 | -0.9% |
| 14 | Price Volume Trend ✓ | Weekly | 41.2% | 0.87 | -71.4% | 46.8% | 47 | -1.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on 3x Semis (SOXL)
109 of 568 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on 3x Semis (SOXL) outright. Another 83 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 271 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sine-Weighted MA | 2 | none needed | 1.55× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | 2 | none needed | 1.21× |
| KAMA 30 Trend | 1 | 1.12× | 1.89× |
| Stoch RSI (fast) | 1 | 1.16× | 1.33× |
| Price Volume Trend | 1 | 1.19× | 1.38× |
| Elastic VW MA | 1 | 1.22× | 1.34× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For 3x Semis (SOXL), Disparity (20) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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