The best indicator for Optimism
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Optimism history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Optimism stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Keltner Mean-Reversion
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Optimism over ~6.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 104.3% CAGR.
Optimism on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
Chart by TradingView. Loading it contacts tradingview.com, which may set its own cookies — see our privacy policy.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMC: Change of Character | Daily | 28.3% | 0.7 | -59.4% | 46.2% | 13 | -86.2% |
| 2 | LSMA 30 Trend | Weekly | 43.6% | 0.83 | -60.9% | 45.5% | 11 | -167.0% |
| 3 | Gator Oscillator | Daily | 11.9% | 0.51 | -30.6% | 39.1% | 64 | -102.6% |
| 4 | G-Channel | Daily | 10.6% | 0.45 | -60.8% | 37.0% | 27 | -103.8% |
| 5 | EMA-10 Trend | Weekly | 14.9% | 0.52 | -69.3% | 37.5% | 16 | -195.7% |
| 6 | Q-Stick | Weekly | 14.9% | 0.52 | -69.3% | 37.5% | 16 | -195.7% |
| 7 | Disparity (10) | Weekly | 14.9% | 0.52 | -69.3% | 37.5% | 16 | -195.7% |
| 8 | Keltner Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 10.2% | 0.44 | -53.8% | 65.0% | 20 | -104.3% |
| 9 | SMA 15/60 Cross | Daily | 11.6% | 0.47 | -72.3% | 28.6% | 14 | -102.9% |
| 10 | KDJ | Weekly | 13.9% | 0.51 | -67.9% | 37.5% | 16 | -196.6% |
| 11 | Elder Bull Power | Weekly | 19.0% | 0.57 | -69.9% | 30.8% | 13 | -191.5% |
| 12 | Stoch RSI (fast) | Weekly | 11.8% | 0.49 | -72.2% | 52.6% | 19 | -198.8% |
| 13 | Gaussian Channel | Weekly | 15.0% | 0.52 | -72.4% | 21.4% | 14 | -195.6% |
| 14 | Rate of Change | Weekly | 453.0% | 0.48 | -86.5% | 46.7% | 15 | 242.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on Optimism lost money across the out-of-sample window in 277 of 277 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For Optimism, Keltner Mean-Reversion on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More crypto
Get alerted when Optimism’s signal flips
We track Optimism daily. Its backtested best indicator, Keltner Mean-Reversion (Daily), is flat right now — we'll email you the moment that changes. Free, no spam, unsubscribe any time.