The best indicator for Momentum (MTUM)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Momentum (MTUM) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Chaikin Oscillator
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Momentum (MTUM) over ~13.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.4% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Momentum (MTUM) — trailing buy-and-hold by 13.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chaikin Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.98 | -20.4% | 60.0% | 25 | -2.4% |
| 2 | A/D Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.98 | -20.4% | 60.0% | 25 | -2.4% |
| 3 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Weekly | 13.2% | 0.93 | -21.7% | 43.5% | 23 | -2.7% |
| 4 | RSI (21) ✓ | Weekly | 12.8% | 0.92 | -21.0% | 52.0% | 25 | -3.1% |
| 5 | Elastic VW MA ✓ | Weekly | 12.8% | 0.91 | -21.7% | 60.7% | 28 | -3.1% |
| 6 | Donchian Midline ✓ | Weekly | 12.1% | 0.9 | -18.0% | 63.6% | 22 | -3.8% |
| 7 | Williams %R (28) ✓ | Weekly | 12.5% | 0.9 | -24.5% | 65.0% | 20 | -3.4% |
| 8 | Chandelier Exit ✓ | Weekly | 12.7% | 0.89 | -18.9% | 55.0% | 20 | -3.2% |
| 9 | Smoothed MA (Wilder) ✓ | Weekly | 12.5% | 0.89 | -21.0% | 57.7% | 26 | -3.5% |
| 10 | Williams %R (21) ✓ | Weekly | 11.7% | 0.87 | -19.7% | 65.2% | 23 | -4.2% |
| 11 | RSI Trend (>50) ✓ | Weekly | 11.4% | 0.86 | -22.3% | 68.0% | 25 | -4.5% |
| 12 | Detrended Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 11.1% | 0.86 | -26.0% | 53.0% | 83 | -4.8% |
| 13 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 8.8% | 0.83 | -18.9% | 49.6% | 119 | -7.3% |
| 14 | TSI (13,7) ✓ | Weekly | 10.8% | 0.82 | -17.4% | 64.7% | 17 | -5.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Momentum (MTUM), Chaikin Oscillator on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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