The best indicator for S&P MidCap (MDY)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real S&P MidCap (MDY) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where S&P MidCap (MDY) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
McGinley Dynamic
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for S&P MidCap (MDY) over ~31.5 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.2% CAGR.
S&P MidCap (MDY) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for S&P MidCap (MDY) — trailing buy-and-hold by 9.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Weekly | 8.8% | 0.65 | -26.6% | 56.9% | 65 | -2.2% |
| 2 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 9.7% | 0.64 | -28.1% | 57.1% | 21 | -1.3% |
| 3 | MAMA / FAMA ✓ | Weekly | 8.1% | 0.63 | -22.7% | 64.3% | 28 | -2.8% |
| 4 | Predictive Ranges ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.63 | -32.0% | 54.8% | 73 | -2.6% |
| 5 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 10.2% | 0.62 | -36.3% | 57.7% | 26 | -0.8% |
| 6 | G-Channel ✓ | Weekly | 8.7% | 0.62 | -30.4% | 58.6% | 29 | -2.2% |
| 7 | SMC: Fair Value Gap ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.62 | -29.8% | 49.3% | 69 | -3.3% |
| 8 | KAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.5% | 0.61 | -25.0% | 58.0% | 88 | -3.5% |
| 9 | EMA 8/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.6 | -22.9% | 66.7% | 30 | -3.4% |
| 10 | Trend Magic ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.6 | -27.0% | 60.4% | 96 | -3.5% |
| 11 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.6 | -25.7% | 60.7% | 28 | -3.3% |
| 12 | KAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.6 | -26.4% | 48.3% | 58 | -3.4% |
| 13 | RSI (30) ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.6 | -28.5% | 58.5% | 41 | -3.2% |
| 14 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.59 | -26.8% | 54.2% | 59 | -3.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on S&P MidCap (MDY)
2 of 674 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on S&P MidCap (MDY) outright. Another 299 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 239 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Index | 1 | 1.96× | 2.77× |
| Lorentzian Classification | 1 | none needed | 3.18× |
| QQE | — | 1.14× | 2.83× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 1.27× | 3.36× |
| FRAMA 10/30 Cross | — | 1.48× | 3.25× |
| McGinley Dynamic | — | 1.59× | 3.76× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For S&P MidCap (MDY), McGinley Dynamic on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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