The best indicator for S&P MidCap (MDY)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real S&P MidCap (MDY) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
McGinley Dynamic
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for S&P MidCap (MDY) over ~31.2 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.9% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for S&P MidCap (MDY) — trailing buy-and-hold by 9.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Weekly | 9.2% | 0.67 | -26.3% | 55.4% | 65 | -1.9% |
| 2 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 10.4% | 0.63 | -36.3% | 57.7% | 26 | -0.8% |
| 3 | MAMA / FAMA ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.63 | -22.7% | 62.1% | 29 | -3.0% |
| 4 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 9.5% | 0.63 | -28.4% | 52.0% | 25 | -1.6% |
| 5 | G-Channel ✓ | Weekly | 8.9% | 0.63 | -31.0% | 58.6% | 29 | -2.3% |
| 6 | KAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.6% | 0.62 | -25.0% | 58.6% | 87 | -3.6% |
| 7 | QQE ✓ | Weekly | 10.1% | 0.61 | -53.3% | 51.1% | 88 | -1.1% |
| 8 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.61 | -25.9% | 64.3% | 28 | -3.4% |
| 9 | EMA 8/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.6 | -23.0% | 66.7% | 30 | -3.5% |
| 10 | KAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.6 | -26.4% | 50.0% | 60 | -3.5% |
| 11 | RSI (30) ✓ | Weekly | 7.9% | 0.6 | -28.6% | 58.5% | 41 | -3.3% |
| 12 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.7% | 0.59 | -26.8% | 54.2% | 59 | -3.5% |
| 13 | Chandelier Exit ✓ | Weekly | 8.3% | 0.59 | -29.1% | 64.0% | 50 | -2.9% |
| 14 | VIDYA ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.59 | -25.0% | 56.4% | 55 | -3.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For S&P MidCap (MDY), McGinley Dynamic on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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