The best indicator for Decentraland
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Decentraland history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
TRIMA 30 Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Decentraland over ~12.5 years — beating buy-and-hold by 34.8% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TRIMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 46.9% | 0.8 | -64.4% | 48.6% | 74 | 34.8% |
| 2 | Donchian Breakout | Daily | 50.1% | 0.79 | -75.0% | 43.2% | 37 | 37.9% |
| 3 | Even Better Sinewave ✓ | Daily | 48.6% | 0.78 | -79.8% | 40.7% | 59 | 36.4% |
| 4 | Supertrend (10,3) | Daily | 45.8% | 0.77 | -84.1% | 42.9% | 35 | 33.7% |
| 5 | Ehlers SuperSmoother ✓ | Weekly | 74.3% | 0.77 | -81.1% | 48.1% | 52 | 51.2% |
| 6 | Fisher Transform | Daily | 45.1% | 0.76 | -84.2% | 43.4% | 286 | 32.9% |
| 7 | MAMA / FAMA ✓ | Daily | 45.6% | 0.76 | -85.3% | 35.6% | 59 | 33.4% |
| 8 | KAMA 10/30 Cross | Daily | 45.1% | 0.75 | -83.1% | 40.6% | 32 | 32.9% |
| 9 | DeMarker (21) | Daily | 43.1% | 0.75 | -87.6% | 33.6% | 110 | 31.0% |
| 10 | Instantaneous Trendline | Daily | 42.2% | 0.74 | -88.3% | 41.2% | 119 | 30.0% |
| 11 | TRIX (9) ✓ | Daily | 42.2% | 0.74 | -85.0% | 39.3% | 56 | 30.0% |
| 12 | KAMA 30 Trend | Daily | 43.5% | 0.74 | -81.1% | 39.5% | 119 | 31.3% |
| 13 | Elder Ray (Bull/Bear Power) ✓ | Daily | 42.3% | 0.73 | -77.4% | 41.2% | 199 | 30.1% |
| 14 | Relative Volatility Index | Daily | 41.4% | 0.73 | -82.6% | 40.7% | 216 | 29.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Decentraland, TRIMA 30 Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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