The best indicator for iShares Bitcoin (IBIT)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real iShares Bitcoin (IBIT) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where iShares Bitcoin (IBIT) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Stochastic Fast (5,3)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for iShares Bitcoin (IBIT) over ~2.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 15.0% CAGR.
iShares Bitcoin (IBIT) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
Chart by TradingView. Loading it contacts tradingview.com, which may set its own cookies — see our privacy policy.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for iShares Bitcoin (IBIT) — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.8% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stochastic Fast (5,3) ✓ | Weekly | 41.2% | 1.34 | -15.8% | 60.0% | 15 | 15.0% |
| 2 | Ehlers Relative Vigor ✓ | Daily | 42.9% | 1.22 | -30.1% | 49.1% | 57 | 19.2% |
| 3 | Price Volume Trend ✓ | Daily | 37.7% | 1.16 | -26.9% | 55.2% | 29 | 14.0% |
| 4 | Elastic VW MA ✓ | Daily | 38.4% | 1.13 | -29.8% | 52.0% | 25 | 14.7% |
| 5 | Smoothed MA (Wilder) ✓ | Daily | 35.8% | 1.08 | -30.9% | 42.3% | 26 | 12.2% |
| 6 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 33.5% | 1.05 | -35.3% | 43.2% | 44 | 9.8% |
| 7 | Chaikin Volatility ✓ | Daily | 25.9% | 1.05 | -20.2% | 56.2% | 32 | 2.2% |
| 8 | Coppock (fast) ✓ | Daily | 33.5% | 1.05 | -24.4% | 37.5% | 24 | 9.8% |
| 9 | Force Index ✓ | Daily | 32.3% | 1.04 | -24.8% | 50.0% | 38 | 8.6% |
| 10 | Accumulation Swing Index ✓ | Weekly | 25.0% | 0.99 | -20.2% | 38.7% | 31 | -1.2% |
| 11 | Swing Index ✓ | Weekly | 25.0% | 0.99 | -20.2% | 38.7% | 31 | -1.2% |
| 12 | Perfect Trend Line ✓ | Weekly | 29.8% | 0.99 | -22.4% | 46.7% | 15 | 3.6% |
| 13 | Choppiness Index ✓ | Daily | 24.3% | 1.25 | -11.8% | 41.7% | 12 | 0.6% |
| 14 | Camarilla Pivots | Daily | 34.3% | 1.0 | -32.2% | 48.8% | 166 | 10.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on iShares Bitcoin (IBIT) lost money across the out-of-sample window in 119 of 119 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For iShares Bitcoin (IBIT), Stochastic Fast (5,3) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More etf
Get alerted when iShares Bitcoin’s signal flips
We track iShares Bitcoin daily. Its backtested best indicator, Stochastic Fast (5,3) (Weekly), is flat right now — we'll email you the moment that changes. Free, no spam, unsubscribe any time.