The best indicator for iShares Bitcoin (IBIT)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real iShares Bitcoin (IBIT) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where iShares Bitcoin (IBIT) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Force Index
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for iShares Bitcoin (IBIT) over ~2.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 21.8% CAGR.
iShares Bitcoin (IBIT) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for iShares Bitcoin (IBIT) — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.8% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ichimoku (fast) | Daily | 37.2% | 1.12 | -37.4% | 36.4% | 22 | 26.2% |
| 2 | Stochastic Fast (5,3) | Weekly | 41.1% | 1.29 | -15.8% | 53.8% | 13 | 27.3% |
| 3 | Accumulation Swing Index | Weekly | 28.8% | 1.06 | -20.2% | 34.6% | 26 | 15.0% |
| 4 | Swing Index | Weekly | 28.8% | 1.06 | -20.2% | 34.6% | 26 | 15.0% |
| 5 | Force Index ✓ | Daily | 32.8% | 1.05 | -24.1% | 50.0% | 30 | 21.8% |
| 6 | Price Volume Trend | Daily | 32.7% | 1.04 | -26.9% | 54.2% | 24 | 21.7% |
| 7 | Chaikin Volatility ✓ | Daily | 25.5% | 1.03 | -20.2% | 61.5% | 26 | 14.5% |
| 8 | Coppock (fast) | Daily | 32.9% | 1.02 | -24.4% | 40.0% | 20 | 22.0% |
| 9 | Elastic VW MA | Daily | 32.8% | 1.0 | -29.8% | 52.4% | 21 | 21.8% |
| 10 | Ehlers Relative Vigor ✓ | Daily | 32.7% | 1.0 | -30.1% | 47.1% | 51 | 21.7% |
| 11 | Camarilla Pivots | Daily | 34.0% | 0.97 | -32.2% | 47.3% | 148 | 23.0% |
| 12 | Rate of Change | Daily | 29.9% | 0.96 | -35.3% | 44.7% | 38 | 19.0% |
| 13 | Smoothed MA (Wilder) | Daily | 29.6% | 0.93 | -30.9% | 43.5% | 23 | 18.6% |
| 14 | Bandpass Oscillator | Daily | 29.9% | 0.93 | -24.9% | 51.9% | 27 | 18.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on iShares Bitcoin (IBIT) lost money across the out-of-sample window in 119 of 119 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For iShares Bitcoin (IBIT), Force Index on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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