The best indicator for Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Keltner Mean-Reversion
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) over ~16.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 8.2% CAGR.
Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keltner Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 11.1% | 0.53 | -56.0% | 79.7% | 69 | 8.2% |
| 2 | Markov Regime (Confirmed) ✓ | Weekly | 8.9% | 0.51 | -55.3% | 65.5% | 29 | 6.1% |
| 3 | Laguerre RSI ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.5 | -35.0% | 72.4% | 29 | 5.7% |
| 4 | Bullish Marubozu ✓ | Weekly | 4.6% | 0.48 | -24.4% | 73.3% | 15 | 1.8% |
| 5 | Elder Impulse ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.47 | -28.6% | 46.9% | 81 | 5.5% |
| 6 | Schaff Trend Cycle ✓ | Weekly | 3.6% | 0.46 | -10.7% | 67.9% | 28 | 0.8% |
| 7 | DeMarker ✓ | Weekly | 9.9% | 0.53 | -44.9% | 76.9% | 13 | 7.2% |
| 8 | Connors RSI ✓ | Weekly | 8.1% | 0.45 | -62.1% | 62.5% | 48 | 5.4% |
| 9 | Stochastic Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 8.5% | 0.44 | -63.4% | 74.4% | 82 | 5.6% |
| 10 | VWAP Bands ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.46 | -49.6% | 78.6% | 14 | 4.6% |
| 11 | Relative Vigor Index ✓ | Weekly | 8.1% | 0.41 | -77.0% | 50.8% | 63 | 5.4% |
| 12 | RSI Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 6.5% | 0.39 | -47.8% | 80.0% | 25 | 3.6% |
| 13 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.39 | -53.9% | 67.6% | 74 | 4.3% |
| 14 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.39 | -53.9% | 67.6% | 74 | 4.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ)
20 of 585 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) outright. Another 228 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 179 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parabolic SAR | 2 | none needed | 3.6× |
| ROC (20) | 1 | 1.61× | 3.23× |
| Momentum (20) | 1 | 1.61× | 3.23× |
| Parabolic SAR (fast) | 1 | 1.74× | 3.58× |
| Elder Ray (Bull/Bear Power) | 1 | 2.42× | 3.4× |
| CCI | 1 | none needed | 4.44× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ), Keltner Mean-Reversion on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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