The best indicator for Grayscale Bitcoin
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Grayscale Bitcoin history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
FRAMA 30 Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Grayscale Bitcoin over ~11.1 years — beating buy-and-hold by 26.9% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FRAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 77.2% | 1.35 | -62.5% | 42.1% | 285 | 26.9% |
| 2 | Force Index ✓ | Daily | 80.8% | 1.3 | -63.8% | 41.8% | 146 | 30.4% |
| 3 | Ichimoku Cloud ✓ | Daily | 76.6% | 1.23 | -52.8% | 48.1% | 54 | 26.2% |
| 4 | Acceleration Bands ✓ | Daily | 62.2% | 1.22 | -53.7% | 51.3% | 119 | 11.8% |
| 5 | Hull MA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 66.0% | 1.21 | -60.3% | 44.2% | 163 | 15.7% |
| 6 | EMA Cascade Rider ✓ | Daily | 71.3% | 1.2 | -50.8% | 44.7% | 38 | 21.0% |
| 7 | Relative Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 73.9% | 1.19 | -72.6% | 50.0% | 42 | 23.5% |
| 8 | Chaikin Volatility ✓ | Daily | 61.1% | 1.19 | -68.5% | 50.0% | 126 | 10.8% |
| 9 | FRAMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 67.7% | 1.19 | -65.4% | 43.2% | 264 | 17.4% |
| 10 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | Daily | 71.9% | 1.18 | -68.6% | 40.9% | 44 | 21.5% |
| 11 | CCI (100) ✓ | Daily | 74.6% | 1.18 | -69.4% | 43.6% | 39 | 24.3% |
| 12 | J_TPO ✓ | Daily | 65.7% | 1.18 | -71.2% | 42.3% | 156 | 15.3% |
| 13 | Guppy Multiple MA ✓ | Daily | 71.9% | 1.17 | -74.4% | 36.4% | 33 | 21.6% |
| 14 | Triangular MA ✓ | Daily | 68.7% | 1.17 | -77.9% | 43.0% | 142 | 18.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Grayscale Bitcoin, FRAMA 30 Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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