The best indicator for Grayscale Bitcoin
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Grayscale Bitcoin history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Grayscale Bitcoin stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
FRAMA 30 Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Grayscale Bitcoin over ~11.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 25.3% CAGR.
Grayscale Bitcoin on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FRAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 78.8% | 1.37 | -62.5% | 42.1% | 290 | 25.3% |
| 2 | Force Index ✓ | Daily | 79.7% | 1.29 | -63.8% | 41.8% | 153 | 26.2% |
| 3 | Ichimoku Cloud ✓ | Daily | 76.4% | 1.24 | -52.8% | 49.1% | 55 | 22.9% |
| 4 | Acceleration Bands ✓ | Daily | 62.1% | 1.23 | -53.7% | 50.4% | 123 | 8.7% |
| 5 | Relative Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 74.7% | 1.21 | -72.6% | 51.2% | 43 | 21.2% |
| 6 | Hull MA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 65.1% | 1.21 | -60.3% | 44.3% | 167 | 11.7% |
| 7 | FRAMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 68.9% | 1.21 | -65.4% | 43.1% | 267 | 15.4% |
| 8 | EMA Cascade Rider ✓ | Daily | 70.4% | 1.2 | -50.8% | 46.2% | 39 | 16.9% |
| 9 | Guppy Multiple MA ✓ | Daily | 72.8% | 1.18 | -74.4% | 38.2% | 34 | 19.3% |
| 10 | Chaikin Volatility ✓ | Daily | 59.7% | 1.18 | -68.5% | 48.9% | 133 | 6.2% |
| 11 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | Daily | 71.7% | 1.18 | -68.6% | 40.4% | 47 | 18.2% |
| 12 | CCI (100) ✓ | Daily | 74.5% | 1.18 | -69.4% | 45.0% | 40 | 21.0% |
| 13 | J_TPO ✓ | Daily | 65.4% | 1.18 | -71.2% | 42.9% | 163 | 11.9% |
| 14 | Triangular MA ✓ | Daily | 68.7% | 1.17 | -77.9% | 43.2% | 148 | 15.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Grayscale Bitcoin
19 of 450 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Grayscale Bitcoin outright. Another 299 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 102 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balance of Power | 1 | 1.22× | 2.76× |
| Regularized EMA | 1 | 1.47× | 3.14× |
| J_TPO | 1 | 1.58× | 3.09× |
| Volume Zone Oscillator | 1 | 1.61× | 3.96× |
| Gaussian Channel | 1 | 1.7× | 3.26× |
| DEMA 30 Trend | 1 | 2.17× | 3.75× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Grayscale Bitcoin, FRAMA 30 Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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