The best indicator for Fidelity Bitcoin
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Fidelity Bitcoin history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Chaikin Volatility
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Fidelity Bitcoin over ~2.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 13.8% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Accumulation Swing Index | Weekly | 30.2% | 1.11 | -20.1% | 34.6% | 26 | 17.6% |
| 2 | Swing Index | Weekly | 30.2% | 1.11 | -20.1% | 34.6% | 26 | 17.6% |
| 3 | Stochastic Fast (5,3) | Weekly | 32.2% | 1.09 | -15.6% | 50.0% | 14 | 19.6% |
| 4 | Ichimoku (fast) | Daily | 33.4% | 1.04 | -37.2% | 34.8% | 23 | 23.5% |
| 5 | Woodie Pivots | Weekly | 26.0% | 0.97 | -24.9% | 39.3% | 28 | 13.4% |
| 6 | Chaikin Volatility ✓ | Daily | 23.7% | 0.99 | -20.6% | 53.6% | 28 | 13.8% |
| 7 | Net Volume | Daily | 27.5% | 0.99 | -27.2% | 52.4% | 21 | 17.6% |
| 8 | Liquidity Flow Oscillator | Daily | 27.5% | 0.99 | -27.2% | 52.4% | 21 | 17.6% |
| 9 | Rate of Change | Daily | 30.3% | 0.98 | -33.8% | 45.9% | 37 | 20.4% |
| 10 | Camarilla Pivots | Daily | 32.4% | 0.94 | -32.4% | 47.3% | 150 | 22.5% |
| 11 | Ehlers Relative Vigor ✓ | Daily | 29.8% | 0.93 | -30.6% | 44.2% | 52 | 19.9% |
| 12 | Smoothed MA (Wilder) | Daily | 28.9% | 0.92 | -31.0% | 43.5% | 23 | 19.0% |
| 13 | Elastic VW MA | Daily | 28.9% | 0.92 | -33.6% | 58.3% | 24 | 19.0% |
| 14 | Price Volume Trend | Daily | 26.8% | 0.9 | -25.4% | 44.0% | 25 | 16.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Fidelity Bitcoin, Chaikin Volatility on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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