The best indicator for Fidelity Bitcoin
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Fidelity Bitcoin history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Fidelity Bitcoin stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Stochastic Fast (5,3)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Fidelity Bitcoin over ~2.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 11.0% CAGR.
Fidelity Bitcoin on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stochastic Fast (5,3) ✓ | Weekly | 37.2% | 1.25 | -15.6% | 60.0% | 15 | 11.0% |
| 2 | Ehlers Relative Vigor ✓ | Daily | 43.0% | 1.22 | -30.6% | 47.4% | 57 | 19.3% |
| 3 | Relative Vigor Index ✓ | Daily | 38.3% | 1.12 | -35.4% | 50.9% | 55 | 14.5% |
| 4 | Accumulation Swing Index ✓ | Weekly | 27.6% | 1.06 | -20.1% | 40.0% | 30 | 1.4% |
| 5 | Swing Index ✓ | Weekly | 27.6% | 1.06 | -20.1% | 40.0% | 30 | 1.4% |
| 6 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 34.6% | 1.08 | -33.8% | 44.2% | 43 | 10.8% |
| 7 | Smoothed MA (Wilder) ✓ | Daily | 36.0% | 1.08 | -31.0% | 42.3% | 26 | 12.3% |
| 8 | Three White Soldiers ✓ | Daily | 23.6% | 1.06 | -20.9% | 50.0% | 24 | -0.1% |
| 9 | Price Volume Trend ✓ | Daily | 33.2% | 1.05 | -25.4% | 44.8% | 29 | 9.5% |
| 10 | Net Volume ✓ | Daily | 30.0% | 1.04 | -27.2% | 53.6% | 28 | 6.3% |
| 11 | Liquidity Flow Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 30.0% | 1.04 | -27.2% | 53.6% | 28 | 6.3% |
| 12 | Elastic VW MA ✓ | Daily | 33.5% | 1.02 | -33.6% | 54.8% | 31 | 9.7% |
| 13 | Choppiness Index ✓ | Daily | 24.1% | 1.24 | -13.8% | 50.0% | 12 | 0.4% |
| 14 | Camarilla Pivots | Daily | 33.8% | 0.99 | -32.4% | 49.1% | 165 | 10.0% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on Fidelity Bitcoin lost money across the out-of-sample window in 103 of 103 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For Fidelity Bitcoin, Stochastic Fast (5,3) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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