The best indicator for Ethereum (ETH)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Ethereum (ETH) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Ethereum (ETH) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
WMA 30 Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Ethereum (ETH) over ~12.9 years — beating buy-and-hold by 29.1% CAGR.
Ethereum (ETH) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Ethereum (ETH) — beating buy-and-hold by 25.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 47.1% | 1.06 | -45.5% | 43.1% | 137 | 29.1% |
| 2 | KAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 46.3% | 1.05 | -48.9% | 45.5% | 121 | 28.4% |
| 3 | Adaptive Supertrend ✓ | Daily | 45.6% | 1.03 | -55.7% | 39.8% | 83 | 27.7% |
| 4 | SMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 44.8% | 1.03 | -55.3% | 44.0% | 109 | 26.9% |
| 5 | Gann HiLo Activator ✓ | Weekly | 61.6% | 1.03 | -63.2% | 58.6% | 29 | 34.3% |
| 6 | Fisher Center-of-Gravity ✓ | Weekly | 43.0% | 1.03 | -62.4% | 53.5% | 43 | 15.7% |
| 7 | Ehlers Decycler ✓ | Daily | 46.0% | 1.02 | -49.5% | 41.1% | 190 | 28.1% |
| 8 | Ulcer Index ✓ | Daily | 36.2% | 1.02 | -47.7% | 53.9% | 76 | 18.3% |
| 9 | Zero-Lag MACD ✓ | Weekly | 48.6% | 1.02 | -56.2% | 57.6% | 33 | 21.3% |
| 10 | RSI (9) ✓ | Daily | 45.2% | 1.01 | -41.3% | 38.5% | 195 | 27.3% |
| 11 | Supertrend (20,3) ✓ | Daily | 43.3% | 1.01 | -52.8% | 52.6% | 38 | 25.4% |
| 12 | Bollinger 30 (x2.0) Break ✓ | Daily | 22.4% | 1.01 | -21.4% | 53.8% | 78 | 4.5% |
| 13 | FRAMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 44.0% | 1.01 | -49.2% | 28.6% | 28 | 16.7% |
| 14 | Center of Gravity ✓ | Weekly | 49.5% | 1.0 | -63.5% | 62.0% | 50 | 22.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
The question doesn't apply here. Buy-and-hold on Ethereum (ETH) lost money across the out-of-sample window in 1152 of 1152 tests, so there is no positive benchmark to lever toward — clearing a negative bar is a much weaker claim than beating a real one, and we keep the two apart rather than counting it as a win. How we compute that
For Ethereum (ETH), WMA 30 Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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