The best indicator for Dividend (DVY)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Dividend (DVY) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Dividend (DVY) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
TRIMA 200 Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Dividend (DVY) over ~22.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.9% CAGR.
Dividend (DVY) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Dividend (DVY) — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TRIMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.8% | 0.72 | -19.2% | 58.5% | 41 | -1.9% |
| 2 | SMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.72 | -29.1% | 76.5% | 17 | -0.7% |
| 3 | McGinley 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.7% | 0.7 | -30.6% | 52.4% | 21 | -0.0% |
| 4 | VIDYA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.5% | 0.69 | -29.0% | 68.8% | 16 | -1.3% |
| 5 | CCI (200) ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.69 | -20.2% | 36.1% | 61 | -1.6% |
| 6 | Momentum (50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.69 | -24.8% | 54.2% | 24 | -1.3% |
| 7 | McGinley 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 8.7% | 0.68 | -34.5% | 37.5% | 24 | -0.0% |
| 8 | Relative Momentum Index ✓ | Weekly | 7.5% | 0.68 | -28.1% | 60.0% | 15 | -1.2% |
| 9 | TRIMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.68 | -28.7% | 56.8% | 37 | -2.3% |
| 10 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.67 | -16.2% | 64.9% | 37 | -2.6% |
| 11 | Predictive Ranges ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.67 | -26.3% | 50.0% | 48 | -0.9% |
| 12 | SMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.65 | -24.3% | 48.6% | 74 | -2.5% |
| 13 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.1% | 0.75 | -24.8% | 61.5% | 13 | -0.6% |
| 14 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.64 | -20.4% | 68.8% | 16 | -2.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Dividend (DVY)
3 of 619 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Dividend (DVY) outright. Another 416 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 120 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | 2 | none needed | 3.14× |
| Intraday Momentum Index | 1 | none needed | 2.79× |
| True Strength Index | — | 1.33× | 7.15× |
| MACD | — | 1.38× | 6.97× |
| TEMA 10/30 Cross | — | 1.42× | 5.92× |
| Chandelier Exit | — | 1.43× | 4.8× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Dividend (DVY), TRIMA 200 Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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