The best indicator for Bitcoin (BTC)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Bitcoin (BTC) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Bitcoin (BTC) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
TEMA 30 Trend
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Bitcoin (BTC) over ~12.1 years — beating buy-and-hold by 7.6% CAGR.
Bitcoin (BTC) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
Chart by TradingView. Loading it contacts tradingview.com, which may set its own cookies — see our privacy policy.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Bitcoin (BTC) — beating buy-and-hold by 12.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 63.2% | 1.32 | -46.6% | 66.7% | 33 | 7.6% |
| 2 | LSMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 68.2% | 1.32 | -34.8% | 64.5% | 31 | 12.6% |
| 3 | Volume-Weighted EMA ✓ | Weekly | 70.2% | 1.31 | -34.8% | 54.2% | 24 | 14.6% |
| 4 | Squeeze Momentum ✓ | Weekly | 57.6% | 1.26 | -35.0% | 74.1% | 27 | 2.1% |
| 5 | Rainbow MA ✓ | Weekly | 64.6% | 1.26 | -64.1% | 49.2% | 63 | 9.0% |
| 6 | Woodies CCI ✓ | Daily | 44.2% | 1.24 | -60.8% | 42.2% | 313 | 9.5% |
| 7 | Triangular Hull MA ✓ | Weekly | 61.5% | 1.24 | -45.8% | 64.5% | 31 | 5.9% |
| 8 | ROC (5) ✓ | Weekly | 64.1% | 1.24 | -54.9% | 43.5% | 62 | 8.6% |
| 9 | B-Xtrender ✓ | Weekly | 55.9% | 1.23 | -51.5% | 48.0% | 50 | 0.3% |
| 10 | ALMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 63.3% | 1.23 | -46.7% | 58.6% | 29 | 7.7% |
| 11 | ALMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 46.8% | 1.22 | -61.3% | 43.7% | 87 | 12.0% |
| 12 | ZLEMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 42.3% | 1.22 | -52.3% | 45.5% | 297 | 7.5% |
| 13 | Impulse MACD ✓ | Daily | 36.6% | 1.21 | -34.6% | 48.3% | 205 | 1.8% |
| 14 | Keltner 20 Break ✓ | Daily | 30.0% | 1.21 | -42.2% | 56.6% | 122 | -4.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Bitcoin (BTC)
28 of 1240 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Bitcoin (BTC) outright. Another 366 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 91 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zero-Lag MACD | 2 | 1.03× | 2.57× |
| FRAMA 200 Trend | 1 | 1.18× | 3.49× |
| FRAMA 10/30 Cross | 1 | 1.36× | 2.52× |
| Cutler's RSI | 1 | 1.72× | 3.0× |
| ROC (14) | 1 | 1.72× | 3.0× |
| CMO (14) | 1 | 1.72× | 3.0× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Bitcoin (BTC), TEMA 30 Trend on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More crypto
Get alerted when Bitcoin’s signal flips
We track Bitcoin daily. Its backtested best indicator, TEMA 30 Trend (Weekly), is long right now — we'll email you the moment that changes. Free, no spam, unsubscribe any time.