The best indicator for Bitcoin (BTC)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Bitcoin (BTC) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
LSMA 30 Trend
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Bitcoin (BTC) over ~11.8 years — beating buy-and-hold by 16.0% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Bitcoin (BTC) — beating buy-and-hold by 12.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LSMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 69.6% | 1.33 | -34.8% | 62.1% | 29 | 16.0% |
| 2 | TEMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 64.4% | 1.32 | -46.6% | 65.6% | 32 | 10.8% |
| 3 | Volume-Weighted EMA ✓ | Weekly | 71.7% | 1.31 | -34.8% | 52.2% | 23 | 18.0% |
| 4 | Squeeze Momentum ✓ | Weekly | 58.4% | 1.26 | -35.0% | 73.1% | 26 | 4.7% |
| 5 | Triangular Hull MA ✓ | Weekly | 62.5% | 1.25 | -45.8% | 63.3% | 30 | 8.9% |
| 6 | ROC (5) ✓ | Weekly | 65.8% | 1.25 | -54.9% | 40.7% | 59 | 12.1% |
| 7 | ALMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 64.5% | 1.24 | -46.7% | 57.1% | 28 | 10.9% |
| 8 | ZLEMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 43.0% | 1.23 | -52.3% | 45.2% | 290 | 9.4% |
| 9 | Keltner 20 Break ✓ | Daily | 30.5% | 1.22 | -42.2% | 56.8% | 118 | -3.1% |
| 10 | Elder Impulse ✓ | Weekly | 53.9% | 1.22 | -54.1% | 58.2% | 55 | 0.2% |
| 11 | HLC Trend ✓ | Weekly | 67.0% | 1.22 | -74.1% | 45.5% | 22 | 13.3% |
| 12 | Force Index ✓ | Daily | 46.3% | 1.21 | -57.7% | 39.3% | 247 | 12.8% |
| 13 | ALMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 46.4% | 1.21 | -61.3% | 44.0% | 84 | 12.9% |
| 14 | B-Xtrender ✓ | Weekly | 54.5% | 1.21 | -51.5% | 46.9% | 49 | 0.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Bitcoin (BTC), LSMA 30 Trend on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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