The best indicator for Axie
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Axie history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
SMA 30 Trend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Axie over ~8.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 70.4% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 97.1% | 1.17 | -57.6% | 42.9% | 63 | 70.4% |
| 2 | G-Channel ✓ | Daily | 93.9% | 1.15 | -63.5% | 37.5% | 32 | 67.2% |
| 3 | ROC (30) ✓ | Daily | 90.5% | 1.12 | -70.0% | 40.3% | 67 | 63.8% |
| 4 | CMO (30) ✓ | Daily | 90.5% | 1.12 | -70.0% | 40.3% | 67 | 63.8% |
| 5 | Momentum (30) ✓ | Daily | 90.5% | 1.12 | -70.0% | 40.3% | 67 | 63.8% |
| 6 | VIDYA ✓ | Daily | 87.8% | 1.1 | -65.6% | 36.1% | 72 | 61.1% |
| 7 | KAMA 200 Trend | Daily | 87.9% | 1.1 | -80.9% | 28.6% | 28 | 61.2% |
| 8 | Predictive Ranges ✓ | Daily | 82.6% | 1.1 | -60.6% | 36.2% | 47 | 55.9% |
| 9 | EMA 8/21 Cross ✓ | Daily | 81.7% | 1.07 | -65.8% | 27.0% | 37 | 55.0% |
| 10 | Smoothed MA (Wilder) ✓ | Daily | 84.3% | 1.07 | -74.2% | 31.0% | 71 | 57.6% |
| 11 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | Daily | 80.8% | 1.07 | -67.2% | 33.3% | 27 | 54.1% |
| 12 | Trend Magic ✓ | Daily | 79.7% | 1.06 | -74.5% | 38.0% | 100 | 53.0% |
| 13 | WMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Daily | 77.5% | 1.05 | -69.7% | 36.4% | 33 | 50.8% |
| 14 | Disparity (50) ✓ | Daily | 77.4% | 1.05 | -64.5% | 27.8% | 54 | 50.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Axie, SMA 30 Trend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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