The best indicator for ARK Innovation (ARKK)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real ARK Innovation (ARKK) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where ARK Innovation (ARKK) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Supertrend Fast (10,2)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for ARK Innovation (ARKK) over ~11.7 years — beating buy-and-hold by 7.2% CAGR.
ARK Innovation (ARKK) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for ARK Innovation (ARKK) — beating buy-and-hold by 5.2% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Supertrend Fast (10,2) ✓ | Weekly | 19.9% | 0.89 | -26.1% | 60.0% | 15 | 7.2% |
| 2 | Supertrend (10,2) ✓ | Weekly | 19.9% | 0.89 | -26.1% | 60.0% | 15 | 7.2% |
| 3 | Relative Volatility Index ✓ | Daily | 20.0% | 0.84 | -40.9% | 47.7% | 174 | 7.1% |
| 4 | Supertrend (7,2) ✓ | Weekly | 18.1% | 0.84 | -26.1% | 56.2% | 16 | 5.4% |
| 5 | On-Balance Volume ✓ | Daily | 19.2% | 0.83 | -44.7% | 46.2% | 173 | 6.4% |
| 6 | DEMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 16.9% | 0.82 | -30.9% | 40.8% | 49 | 4.0% |
| 7 | Supertrend (10,3) ✓ | Daily | 18.2% | 0.81 | -49.2% | 47.1% | 51 | 5.4% |
| 8 | Adaptive Supertrend ✓ | Weekly | 17.0% | 0.79 | -36.7% | 55.6% | 18 | 4.2% |
| 9 | CCI (50) ✓ | Daily | 16.8% | 0.77 | -46.4% | 36.7% | 79 | 4.0% |
| 10 | Williams Fractals ✓ | Daily | 17.1% | 0.76 | -45.0% | 48.5% | 66 | 4.3% |
| 11 | Supertrend (20,3) ✓ | Daily | 17.2% | 0.76 | -50.5% | 42.6% | 54 | 4.3% |
| 12 | Ichimoku TK Cross ✓ | Daily | 16.8% | 0.75 | -50.3% | 50.8% | 61 | 4.0% |
| 13 | SMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Daily | 16.8% | 0.75 | -39.6% | 41.9% | 43 | 3.9% |
| 14 | Keltner 50 (x2.0) ✓ | Weekly | 13.0% | 0.75 | -29.4% | 50.0% | 20 | 0.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on ARK Innovation (ARKK)
4 of 524 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on ARK Innovation (ARKK) outright. Another 226 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 186 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | 1 | 1.13× | 3.2× |
| Fisher Transform | 1 | 2.74× | 3.54× |
| Andean Oscillator | 1 | none needed | 4.2× |
| MA Envelope | 1 | none needed | 3.78× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 1.04× | 3.21× |
| Chande Kroll Stop | — | 1.15× | 3.2× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For ARK Innovation (ARKK), Supertrend Fast (10,2) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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