The best indicator for Cardano (ADA)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Cardano (ADA) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Adaptive Supertrend
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Cardano (ADA) over ~12.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 61.9% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Cardano (ADA) — beating buy-and-hold by 8.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adaptive Supertrend ✓ | Daily | 76.0% | 1.03 | -74.5% | 32.0% | 75 | 61.9% |
| 2 | Regularized EMA ✓ | Daily | 76.2% | 1.03 | -79.4% | 39.1% | 179 | 62.1% |
| 3 | TRIMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 62.0% | 1.03 | -62.1% | 39.1% | 69 | 47.9% |
| 4 | MAMA / FAMA ✓ | Daily | 74.1% | 1.01 | -72.5% | 40.4% | 52 | 60.0% |
| 5 | Williams %R (21) ✓ | Daily | 61.0% | 1.0 | -83.1% | 35.2% | 142 | 46.9% |
| 6 | Geometric MA ✓ | Daily | 59.5% | 0.99 | -73.9% | 39.7% | 126 | 45.4% |
| 7 | Bollinger Squeeze ✓ | Daily | 36.9% | 0.98 | -50.9% | 36.1% | 36 | 22.8% |
| 8 | Std Error Channel ✓ | Daily | 56.6% | 0.97 | -77.7% | 41.3% | 109 | 42.5% |
| 9 | Heikin-Ashi + EMA ✓ | Daily | 58.3% | 0.97 | -69.2% | 34.4% | 125 | 44.2% |
| 10 | KAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Daily | 66.7% | 0.97 | -70.3% | 40.0% | 120 | 52.6% |
| 11 | FRAMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 61.2% | 0.97 | -65.6% | 32.0% | 25 | 36.1% |
| 12 | Smoothed Heikin-Ashi ✓ | Daily | 66.3% | 0.96 | -79.9% | 34.9% | 186 | 52.2% |
| 13 | Andean Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 65.5% | 0.96 | -73.5% | 40.9% | 44 | 51.4% |
| 14 | Pring's Special K ✓ | Daily | 37.0% | 0.96 | -63.2% | 45.2% | 73 | 22.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Cardano (ADA), Adaptive Supertrend on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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