The best indicator for Health Care (XLV)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Health Care (XLV) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
VWAP Bands
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Health Care (XLV) over ~27.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.4% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Health Care (XLV) — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VWAP Bands ✓ | Weekly | 4.8% | 0.62 | -20.2% | 86.4% | 22 | -3.4% |
| 2 | Markov Regime ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.62 | -32.1% | 80.5% | 41 | 0.2% |
| 3 | Zero-Lag LSMA ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.61 | -19.7% | 57.8% | 102 | -2.4% |
| 4 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.6 | -20.2% | 92.0% | 25 | -3.0% |
| 5 | Keltner Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 4.2% | 0.6 | -14.7% | 93.3% | 15 | -4.0% |
| 6 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.6 | -20.2% | 92.0% | 25 | -3.0% |
| 7 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 4.6% | 0.58 | -19.0% | 96.0% | 25 | -3.6% |
| 8 | Order-Flow Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.57 | -20.2% | 94.7% | 19 | -3.8% |
| 9 | EMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.56 | -26.2% | 35.0% | 20 | -1.6% |
| 10 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.53 | -18.7% | 100.0% | 25 | -3.8% |
| 11 | Stochastic RSI ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.52 | -22.8% | 72.1% | 43 | -3.3% |
| 12 | Stochastic Momentum Index ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.51 | -11.5% | 94.7% | 19 | -5.5% |
| 13 | HMA 9/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.51 | -24.6% | 62.6% | 91 | -3.3% |
| 14 | WMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.5 | -24.4% | 64.7% | 17 | -2.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Health Care (XLV), VWAP Bands on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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