The best indicator for Health Care (XLV)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Health Care (XLV) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Health Care (XLV) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
VWAP Bands
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Health Care (XLV) over ~27.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.4% CAGR.
Health Care (XLV) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Health Care (XLV) — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VWAP Bands ✓ | Weekly | 4.8% | 0.62 | -20.2% | 86.4% | 22 | -3.4% |
| 2 | Markov Regime ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.62 | -32.1% | 80.5% | 41 | 0.2% |
| 3 | Zero-Lag LSMA ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.61 | -19.7% | 57.8% | 102 | -2.4% |
| 4 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.6 | -20.2% | 92.0% | 25 | -3.0% |
| 5 | Keltner Mean-Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 4.2% | 0.6 | -14.7% | 93.3% | 15 | -4.0% |
| 6 | Fibonacci Bands ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.6 | -20.2% | 92.0% | 25 | -3.0% |
| 7 | Stochastic ✓ | Weekly | 4.6% | 0.58 | -19.0% | 96.0% | 25 | -3.6% |
| 8 | Order-Flow Reversion ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.57 | -20.2% | 94.7% | 19 | -3.8% |
| 9 | EMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.56 | -26.2% | 35.0% | 20 | -1.6% |
| 10 | CCI ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.53 | -18.7% | 100.0% | 25 | -3.8% |
| 11 | Stochastic RSI ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.52 | -22.8% | 72.1% | 43 | -3.3% |
| 12 | Stochastic Momentum Index ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.51 | -11.5% | 94.7% | 19 | -5.5% |
| 13 | HMA 9/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.9% | 0.51 | -24.6% | 62.6% | 91 | -3.3% |
| 14 | WMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.7% | 0.5 | -24.4% | 64.7% | 17 | -2.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Health Care (XLV)
1 of 674 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Health Care (XLV) outright. Another 213 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 166 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Index | 1 | 3.6× | 4.81× |
| MA Envelope | — | 1.32× | 5.04× |
| Williams %R | — | 1.65× | 4.67× |
| QQE | — | 1.69× | 3.54× |
| Chande Forecast Osc. | — | 2.03× | 5.52× |
| Fisher Transform | — | 2.05× | 5.47× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Health Care (XLV), VWAP Bands on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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