The best indicator for Energy (XLE)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Energy (XLE) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Energy (XLE) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Schaff Trend Cycle
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Energy (XLE) over ~27.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.5% CAGR.
Energy (XLE) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
Chart by TradingView. Loading it contacts tradingview.com, which may set its own cookies — see our privacy policy.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Energy (XLE) — trailing buy-and-hold by 5.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schaff Trend Cycle ✓ | Weekly | 3.4% | 0.57 | -14.7% | 65.3% | 49 | -5.5% |
| 2 | EMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 9.3% | 0.57 | -24.9% | 56.2% | 16 | 0.4% |
| 3 | WMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.8% | 0.55 | -31.8% | 60.0% | 15 | -0.1% |
| 4 | EMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.9% | 0.54 | -27.7% | 50.0% | 16 | -0.1% |
| 5 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.3% | 0.51 | -34.5% | 61.1% | 18 | -0.7% |
| 6 | WMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.51 | -35.8% | 68.8% | 16 | -0.7% |
| 7 | Guppy Multiple MA ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.51 | -36.6% | 60.0% | 20 | -0.9% |
| 8 | Momentum (50) ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.51 | -36.6% | 66.7% | 39 | -0.7% |
| 9 | McGinley Dynamic ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.5 | -38.4% | 40.9% | 66 | -0.4% |
| 10 | KAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 10.7% | 0.62 | -31.0% | 66.7% | 12 | 1.8% |
| 11 | SMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.49 | -34.9% | 45.0% | 20 | -1.1% |
| 12 | Stochastic RSI ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.48 | -30.4% | 79.5% | 44 | -2.4% |
| 13 | Chaikin Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.48 | -32.6% | 54.3% | 81 | -1.2% |
| 14 | A/D Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.48 | -32.6% | 54.3% | 81 | -1.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Energy (XLE)
30 of 670 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Energy (XLE) outright. Another 272 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 248 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chande Kroll Stop | 2 | none needed | 2.76× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | 2 | none needed | 2.91× |
| McGinley Dynamic | 1 | 1.02× | 2.79× |
| Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) | 1 | 1.24× | 2.11× |
| KDJ | 1 | 1.3× | 3.34× |
| QQE | 1 | 1.48× | 1.75× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Energy (XLE), Schaff Trend Cycle on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More etf
Get alerted when Energy’s signal flips
We track Energy daily. Its backtested best indicator, Schaff Trend Cycle (Weekly), is flat right now — we'll email you the moment that changes. Free, no spam, unsubscribe any time.