The best indicator for Materials (XLB)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Materials (XLB) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Materials (XLB) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Hull MA 20/80 Cross
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Materials (XLB) over ~27.9 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 1.8% CAGR.
Materials (XLB) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Materials (XLB) — trailing buy-and-hold by 6.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hull MA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.52 | -25.1% | 68.6% | 35 | -1.8% |
| 2 | Detrended Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 6.9% | 0.49 | -33.8% | 58.1% | 160 | -1.0% |
| 3 | TEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 5.1% | 0.46 | -28.9% | 63.3% | 30 | -2.8% |
| 4 | Chande Kroll Stop ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.46 | -43.5% | 47.1% | 68 | -0.8% |
| 5 | Demand Index ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.45 | -55.4% | 78.2% | 78 | -1.3% |
| 6 | T3 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.4% | 0.44 | -26.8% | 58.5% | 41 | -2.7% |
| 7 | Center of Gravity ✓ | Weekly | 5.2% | 0.44 | -28.6% | 52.2% | 184 | -2.6% |
| 8 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 6.0% | 0.42 | -58.7% | 77.4% | 84 | -2.1% |
| 9 | Historical Volatility Regime ✓ | Weekly | 4.0% | 0.41 | -23.1% | 48.7% | 39 | -3.9% |
| 10 | T3 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 4.8% | 0.4 | -33.5% | 62.5% | 16 | -3.1% |
| 11 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Weekly | 5.0% | 0.45 | -26.8% | 100.0% | 13 | -2.9% |
| 12 | QQE ✓ | Weekly | 6.2% | 0.39 | -49.3% | 52.4% | 82 | -1.7% |
| 13 | Andean Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 4.3% | 0.39 | -29.2% | 62.1% | 29 | -3.6% |
| 14 | SMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.0% | 0.39 | -41.4% | 58.8% | 17 | -2.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Materials (XLB)
5 of 673 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Materials (XLB) outright. Another 216 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 231 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime (Confirmed) | 1 | 2.3× | 3.03× |
| Connors RSI | 1 | none needed | 3.74× |
| Chaikin Oscillator | 1 | none needed | 3.49× |
| Demand Index | 1 | none needed | 3.49× |
| A/D Oscillator | 1 | none needed | 3.49× |
| MA Envelope | — | 1.45× | 3.65× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Materials (XLB), Hull MA 20/80 Cross on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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