The best indicator for Materials (XLB)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Materials (XLB) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Materials (XLB) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Detrended Price Osc.
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Materials (XLB) over ~27.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.5% CAGR.
Materials (XLB) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Materials (XLB) — trailing buy-and-hold by 6.6% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detrended Price Osc. ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.53 | -33.8% | 58.5% | 159 | -0.5% |
| 2 | Hull MA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.53 | -24.5% | 68.6% | 35 | -1.7% |
| 3 | TEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.49 | -28.0% | 64.5% | 31 | -2.7% |
| 4 | Chande Kroll Stop ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.49 | -40.6% | 47.0% | 66 | -0.4% |
| 5 | T3 20/80 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.7% | 0.46 | -26.8% | 60.0% | 40 | -2.5% |
| 6 | Demand Index ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.46 | -55.4% | 79.2% | 77 | -1.4% |
| 7 | Intraday Momentum Index ✓ | Daily | 6.2% | 0.43 | -58.7% | 77.4% | 84 | -2.1% |
| 8 | Center of Gravity ✓ | Weekly | 5.1% | 0.43 | -28.6% | 54.2% | 177 | -3.0% |
| 9 | QQE ✓ | Weekly | 6.7% | 0.42 | -49.3% | 55.0% | 80 | -1.4% |
| 10 | Andean Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 4.8% | 0.42 | -29.5% | 65.5% | 29 | -3.3% |
| 11 | Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) ✓ | Daily | 6.3% | 0.41 | -46.4% | 42.4% | 490 | -2.0% |
| 12 | Connors RSI ✓ | Weekly | 5.1% | 0.41 | -49.1% | 78.3% | 69 | -3.0% |
| 13 | Hull MA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 4.1% | 0.4 | -30.4% | 55.2% | 29 | -4.0% |
| 14 | SMC: Liquidity Sweep ✓ | Daily | 5.7% | 0.4 | -53.6% | 79.6% | 93 | -2.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Materials (XLB)
5 of 673 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Materials (XLB) outright. Another 216 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 231 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime (Confirmed) | 1 | 2.3× | 3.03× |
| Connors RSI | 1 | none needed | 3.74× |
| Chaikin Oscillator | 1 | none needed | 3.49× |
| Demand Index | 1 | none needed | 3.49× |
| A/D Oscillator | 1 | none needed | 3.49× |
| MA Envelope | — | 1.45× | 3.65× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Materials (XLB), Detrended Price Osc. on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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