The best indicator for Homebuilders
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Homebuilders history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Negative Volume Index
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Homebuilders over ~20.3 years — beating buy-and-hold by 4.0% CAGR.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Negative Volume Index ✓ | Daily | 9.8% | 0.55 | -39.5% | 55.6% | 27 | 4.0% |
| 2 | TEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.53 | -25.5% | 60.0% | 20 | 1.6% |
| 3 | Volatility Stop (ATR) ✓ | Weekly | 9.2% | 0.53 | -54.6% | 65.2% | 23 | 3.4% |
| 4 | SSL Channel ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.51 | -36.4% | 57.9% | 38 | 2.6% |
| 5 | VIDYA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.5% | 0.5 | -32.0% | 44.4% | 18 | 1.7% |
| 6 | T3 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.48 | -27.5% | 47.5% | 59 | 0.6% |
| 7 | ZLEMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.48 | -30.7% | 48.6% | 35 | 0.6% |
| 8 | ZLEMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.3% | 0.48 | -34.7% | 43.5% | 23 | 0.4% |
| 9 | VIDYA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 8.1% | 0.51 | -41.9% | 42.9% | 14 | 2.4% |
| 10 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.0% | 0.47 | -47.0% | 39.0% | 41 | 2.2% |
| 11 | Trendlines with Breaks ✓ | Daily | 7.9% | 0.47 | -38.6% | 48.8% | 43 | 2.1% |
| 12 | Chandelier Exit ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.47 | -46.8% | 51.7% | 29 | 2.5% |
| 13 | Disparity (50) ✓ | Weekly | 7.1% | 0.47 | -32.7% | 39.0% | 41 | 1.2% |
| 14 | SMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.7% | 0.46 | -52.8% | 51.1% | 47 | 1.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Homebuilders, Negative Volume Index on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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