The best indicator for Homebuilders
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Homebuilders history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Homebuilders stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Negative Volume Index
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Homebuilders over ~20.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 4.5% CAGR.
Homebuilders on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Negative Volume Index ✓ | Daily | 9.3% | 0.52 | -39.5% | 51.6% | 31 | 4.5% |
| 2 | Volatility Stop (ATR) ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.5 | -54.6% | 65.2% | 23 | 3.7% |
| 3 | TEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.48 | -36.6% | 57.1% | 21 | 1.7% |
| 4 | SSL Channel ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.48 | -36.3% | 55.3% | 38 | 2.9% |
| 5 | ZLEMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.47 | -34.5% | 41.7% | 24 | 1.2% |
| 6 | T3 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.0% | 0.46 | -27.9% | 46.8% | 62 | 1.2% |
| 7 | ZLEMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.46 | -30.6% | 48.6% | 35 | 1.2% |
| 8 | LSMA 200 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.2% | 0.46 | -30.0% | 35.7% | 28 | 1.3% |
| 9 | VIDYA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.45 | -38.3% | 44.4% | 18 | 1.9% |
| 10 | SMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.1% | 0.44 | -52.8% | 48.9% | 47 | 2.4% |
| 11 | McGinley 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.3% | 0.44 | -47.0% | 36.6% | 41 | 2.6% |
| 12 | Trendlines with Breaks ✓ | Daily | 7.2% | 0.44 | -38.6% | 46.5% | 43 | 2.4% |
| 13 | Chandelier Exit ✓ | Weekly | 7.5% | 0.44 | -44.9% | 42.9% | 28 | 2.7% |
| 14 | Disparity (50) ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.44 | -37.7% | 36.6% | 41 | 1.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Homebuilders
0 of 599 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Homebuilders outright. Another 371 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 175 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | — | 1.31× | 2.38× |
| KAMA 30 Trend | — | 1.45× | 4.28× |
| RSI (25) | — | 1.6× | 3.3× |
| RSI (21) | — | 1.62× | 3.34× |
| VIDYA 30 Trend | — | 1.65× | 2.5× |
| Disparity (50) | — | 1.66× | 3.31× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Homebuilders, Negative Volume Index on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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