The best indicator for Value
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Value history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Value stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Ichimoku TK Cross
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Value over ~22.8 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.9% CAGR.
Value on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ichimoku TK Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.6% | 0.79 | -21.7% | 69.6% | 23 | -0.9% |
| 2 | WMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.5% | 0.78 | -21.8% | 68.8% | 16 | -1.0% |
| 3 | Linear Regression Slope ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.77 | -20.3% | 68.2% | 22 | -1.5% |
| 4 | Coral Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.77 | -30.0% | 66.7% | 21 | -1.3% |
| 5 | Correlation Trend ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.77 | -20.3% | 68.2% | 22 | -1.5% |
| 6 | WMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.1% | 0.77 | -30.0% | 65.0% | 20 | -1.4% |
| 7 | TRIX (9) ✓ | Weekly | 8.4% | 0.77 | -22.0% | 68.8% | 16 | -1.1% |
| 8 | EMA 8/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.74 | -17.6% | 63.2% | 19 | -1.5% |
| 9 | MAMA / FAMA ✓ | Weekly | 8.2% | 0.74 | -21.7% | 60.0% | 15 | -1.3% |
| 10 | EMA 9/26 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 8.1% | 0.74 | -21.2% | 50.0% | 16 | -1.4% |
| 11 | Ehlers TrendFlex ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.73 | -22.0% | 63.2% | 19 | -1.5% |
| 12 | Coppock Curve ✓ | Weekly | 7.4% | 0.7 | -28.5% | 70.8% | 24 | -2.1% |
| 13 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 7.7% | 0.7 | -24.7% | 61.1% | 18 | -1.8% |
| 14 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 7.2% | 0.69 | -18.7% | 58.7% | 46 | -2.4% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Value
0 of 623 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Value outright. Another 503 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 65 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | — | 1.13× | 3.45× |
| Williams %R (21) | — | 1.38× | 6.18× |
| CCI (30) | — | 1.41× | 8.09× |
| Donchian Midline | — | 1.42× | 5.53× |
| Inverse Fisher RSI | — | 1.49× | 6.68× |
| ALMA 10/30 Cross | — | 1.49× | 5.68× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Value, Ichimoku TK Cross on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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