The best indicator for Crude Oil (USO)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Crude Oil (USO) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Crude Oil (USO) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
T3 10/40 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Crude Oil (USO) over ~20.1 years — beating buy-and-hold by 15.2% CAGR.
Crude Oil (USO) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Crude Oil (USO) — beating buy-and-hold by 11.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T3 10/40 Cross ✓ | Daily | 8.5% | 0.46 | -57.5% | 42.1% | 57 | 15.2% |
| 2 | Ultimate Osc (4,8,16) ✓ | Weekly | 7.6% | 0.43 | -62.7% | 39.3% | 84 | 14.4% |
| 3 | Squeeze Momentum ✓ | Weekly | 6.3% | 0.42 | -37.8% | 38.5% | 52 | 13.0% |
| 4 | Inside-Bar Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.3% | 0.41 | -43.7% | 50.0% | 28 | 12.1% |
| 5 | ZLEMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.4% | 0.4 | -37.7% | 40.8% | 71 | 13.2% |
| 6 | Volume Flow Indicator ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.39 | -60.8% | 36.0% | 50 | 13.1% |
| 7 | LSMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.0% | 0.39 | -40.3% | 38.1% | 168 | 12.8% |
| 8 | Coral Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.2% | 0.38 | -63.8% | 42.9% | 112 | 12.9% |
| 9 | Zero-Lag LSMA ✓ | Weekly | 6.6% | 0.38 | -81.2% | 46.8% | 62 | 13.4% |
| 10 | Hammer ✓ | Weekly | 4.4% | 0.38 | -29.6% | 66.7% | 21 | 11.2% |
| 11 | Vortex (7) ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.38 | -52.9% | 44.1% | 68 | 12.9% |
| 12 | ALMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.38 | -44.6% | 37.3% | 59 | 12.7% |
| 13 | SMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.37 | -54.5% | 45.2% | 84 | 12.8% |
| 14 | Linear Regression Slope ✓ | Daily | 6.1% | 0.37 | -59.8% | 40.7% | 123 | 12.8% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Crude Oil (USO)
0 of 629 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Crude Oil (USO) outright. Another 156 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 418 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | — | 1.33× | 2.48× |
| MA Envelope | — | 1.52× | 6.01× |
| Projection Bands | — | 1.69× | 6.36× |
| Demand Index | — | 1.72× | 4.84× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 1.74× | 2.89× |
| Vortex | — | 1.8× | 2.11× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Crude Oil (USO), T3 10/40 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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