The best indicator for Crude Oil (USO)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Crude Oil (USO) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Crude Oil (USO) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
T3 10/40 Cross
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Crude Oil (USO) over ~20.4 years — beating buy-and-hold by 15.3% CAGR.
Crude Oil (USO) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Crude Oil (USO) — beating buy-and-hold by 11.7% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T3 10/40 Cross ✓ | Daily | 9.0% | 0.48 | -57.5% | 43.1% | 58 | 15.3% |
| 2 | Ultimate Osc (4,8,16) ✓ | Weekly | 7.8% | 0.43 | -62.7% | 40.0% | 85 | 14.1% |
| 3 | Inside-Bar Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 5.2% | 0.41 | -43.7% | 50.0% | 28 | 11.5% |
| 4 | SMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 6.7% | 0.4 | -54.5% | 45.9% | 85 | 13.0% |
| 5 | Volume Flow Indicator ✓ | Daily | 6.6% | 0.4 | -60.8% | 36.0% | 50 | 13.0% |
| 6 | LSMA 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.2% | 0.4 | -40.3% | 38.2% | 170 | 12.5% |
| 7 | Squeeze Momentum ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.4 | -37.8% | 37.7% | 53 | 12.1% |
| 8 | Bandpass Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 6.8% | 0.4 | -41.8% | 46.0% | 50 | 13.0% |
| 9 | ZLEMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 6.1% | 0.39 | -37.7% | 39.7% | 73 | 12.4% |
| 10 | Coral Trend ✓ | Daily | 6.4% | 0.38 | -63.8% | 43.9% | 114 | 12.7% |
| 11 | Zero-Lag EMA Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.38 | -42.9% | 49.0% | 51 | 12.8% |
| 12 | ZLEMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 6.5% | 0.38 | -42.9% | 49.0% | 51 | 12.8% |
| 13 | Vortex (7) ✓ | Weekly | 6.3% | 0.38 | -52.9% | 44.9% | 69 | 12.6% |
| 14 | ALMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 5.9% | 0.38 | -44.6% | 38.3% | 60 | 12.1% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Crude Oil (USO)
0 of 629 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Crude Oil (USO) outright. Another 156 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 418 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | — | 1.33× | 2.48× |
| MA Envelope | — | 1.52× | 6.01× |
| Projection Bands | — | 1.69× | 6.36× |
| Demand Index | — | 1.72× | 4.84× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 1.74× | 2.89× |
| Vortex | — | 1.8× | 2.11× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Crude Oil (USO), T3 10/40 Cross on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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