The best indicator for 3x S&P (UPRO)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 3x S&P (UPRO) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where 3x S&P (UPRO) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
FRAMA 10/30 Cross
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 3x S&P (UPRO) over ~17.0 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 11.5% CAGR.
3x S&P (UPRO) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for 3x S&P (UPRO) — trailing buy-and-hold by 21.8% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FRAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 21.1% | 0.87 | -42.8% | 69.6% | 69 | -11.5% |
| 2 | Delta Volume (CVD proxy) ✓ | Weekly | 26.0% | 0.83 | -52.7% | 61.1% | 36 | -6.6% |
| 3 | KDJ ✓ | Weekly | 18.5% | 0.8 | -32.9% | 53.8% | 91 | -14.1% |
| 4 | Chaikin Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 24.0% | 0.79 | -50.8% | 62.9% | 35 | -8.6% |
| 5 | Relative Volatility Index ✓ | Weekly | 23.9% | 0.79 | -46.6% | 50.0% | 32 | -8.8% |
| 6 | A/D Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 24.0% | 0.79 | -50.8% | 62.9% | 35 | -8.6% |
| 7 | QQE ✓ | Weekly | 27.3% | 0.78 | -62.2% | 60.0% | 50 | -5.4% |
| 8 | Stoch RSI (fast) ✓ | Weekly | 19.0% | 0.78 | -45.2% | 64.5% | 93 | -13.6% |
| 9 | KAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Daily | 21.0% | 0.77 | -46.9% | 53.6% | 56 | -11.8% |
| 10 | Cutler's RSI ✓ | Weekly | 21.4% | 0.77 | -41.2% | 65.0% | 40 | -11.2% |
| 11 | ROC (14) ✓ | Weekly | 21.4% | 0.77 | -41.2% | 65.0% | 40 | -11.2% |
| 12 | CMO (14) ✓ | Weekly | 21.4% | 0.77 | -41.2% | 65.0% | 40 | -11.2% |
| 13 | Rate of Change ✓ | Daily | 19.9% | 0.76 | -52.5% | 48.0% | 254 | -12.9% |
| 14 | Twiggs Money Flow ✓ | Weekly | 23.4% | 0.76 | -57.5% | 53.8% | 39 | -9.3% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on 3x S&P (UPRO)
23 of 554 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on 3x S&P (UPRO) outright. Another 171 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 265 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zero-Lag MACD | 2 | none needed | 2.15× |
| Connors RSI | 1 | 2.45× | 2.99× |
| RSI Trend (>50) | 1 | none needed | 2.05× |
| Connors RSI-2 | 1 | none needed | 2.59× |
| Chande Kroll Stop | 1 | none needed | 1.64× |
| Ehlers SuperSmoother | 1 | none needed | 2.14× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For 3x S&P (UPRO), FRAMA 10/30 Cross on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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