The best indicator for Natural Gas (UNG)
We backtested 366 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Natural Gas (UNG) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Gator Oscillator
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Natural Gas (UNG) over ~19.2 years — beating buy-and-hold by 30.8% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Natural Gas (UNG) — beating buy-and-hold by 30.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gator Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 2.9% | 0.29 | -24.5% | 48.3% | 29 | 30.8% |
| 2 | Impulse MACD ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 0.2 | -45.7% | 43.8% | 16 | 29.8% |
| 3 | Historical Volatility Regime ✓ | Weekly | 1.5% | 0.18 | -34.8% | 26.7% | 15 | 29.5% |
| 4 | Bollinger 30 (x2.0) Break ✓ | Weekly | 1.1% | 0.15 | -26.4% | 64.7% | 17 | 29.0% |
| 5 | Choppiness Index ✓ | Weekly | 1.8% | 0.22 | -24.0% | 33.3% | 9 | 29.7% |
| 6 | Trend-Gated Asymmetric ✓ | Daily | 0.7% | 0.13 | -42.5% | 31.2% | 32 | 28.9% |
| 7 | Schaff Trend Cycle | Daily | 0.2% | 0.09 | -61.0% | 56.1% | 155 | 28.4% |
| 8 | Chaikin Volatility ✓ | Weekly | -1.1% | 0.08 | -54.8% | 41.2% | 34 | 26.8% |
| 9 | TEMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | -1.1% | 0.08 | -57.0% | 17.4% | 23 | 26.8% |
| 10 | T3 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | -1.0% | 0.11 | -58.3% | 37.5% | 8 | 27.0% |
| 11 | Standard Error Bands ✓ | Daily | -0.5% | 0.05 | -31.8% | 31.7% | 41 | 27.7% |
| 12 | STARC Bands ✓ | Weekly | -0.6% | 0.05 | -48.0% | 40.0% | 10 | 27.4% |
| 13 | Donchian 55/20 ✓ | Daily | -2.1% | 0.03 | -62.8% | 40.0% | 25 | 26.1% |
| 14 | SMA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | -2.3% | 0.03 | -52.4% | 40.0% | 40 | 25.9% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Natural Gas (UNG), Gator Oscillator on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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