The best indicator for 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
QQE
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ) over ~16.7 years — beating buy-and-hold by 6.0% CAGR.
3x Nasdaq (TQQQ) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ) — trailing buy-and-hold by 17.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QQE ✓ | Weekly | 48.7% | 1.02 | -69.5% | 62.2% | 45 | 6.0% |
| 2 | SMC: Order Block ✓ | Weekly | 36.4% | 0.93 | -52.8% | 56.2% | 16 | -6.3% |
| 3 | Accumulation/Distribution ✓ | Weekly | 34.5% | 0.89 | -64.7% | 51.4% | 37 | -8.1% |
| 4 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 27.0% | 0.88 | -50.4% | 57.9% | 159 | -16.0% |
| 5 | CMO (21) ✓ | Daily | 28.4% | 0.87 | -66.2% | 49.7% | 173 | -14.5% |
| 6 | Net Volume ✓ | Daily | 29.2% | 0.87 | -45.3% | 55.4% | 195 | -13.8% |
| 7 | Liquidity Flow Oscillator ✓ | Daily | 29.2% | 0.87 | -45.3% | 55.4% | 195 | -13.8% |
| 8 | Chaikin Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 32.5% | 0.87 | -60.2% | 54.8% | 42 | -10.1% |
| 9 | Williams %R (28) ✓ | Weekly | 30.9% | 0.87 | -54.8% | 62.1% | 29 | -11.7% |
| 10 | A/D Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 32.5% | 0.87 | -60.2% | 54.8% | 42 | -10.1% |
| 11 | Historical Volatility Regime ✓ | Weekly | 23.2% | 0.86 | -40.4% | 52.9% | 17 | -19.5% |
| 12 | FRAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 29.6% | 0.85 | -67.2% | 64.6% | 65 | -13.1% |
| 13 | RSI (21) ✓ | Weekly | 30.7% | 0.85 | -59.6% | 66.7% | 27 | -11.9% |
| 14 | EMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 29.9% | 0.85 | -54.8% | 59.4% | 32 | -12.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ)
112 of 551 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ) outright. Another 157 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 186 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sine-Weighted MA | 2 | none needed | 1.88× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | 2 | none needed | 1.77× |
| Net Volume | 2 | none needed | 2.41× |
| EMA 30 Trend | 2 | none needed | 2.04× |
| FRAMA 100 Trend | 2 | none needed | 1.97× |
| Liquidity Flow Oscillator | 2 | none needed | 2.41× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For 3x Nasdaq (TQQQ), QQE on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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