The best indicator for TIPS (TIP)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real TIPS (TIP) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where TIPS (TIP) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
KAMA 100 Trend
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for TIPS (TIP) over ~22.6 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 0.8% CAGR.
TIPS (TIP) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for TIPS (TIP) — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.1% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KAMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.59 | -11.0% | 47.8% | 23 | -0.8% |
| 2 | Ichimoku TK Cross ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.56 | -7.6% | 60.9% | 23 | -1.0% |
| 3 | TRIX (9) ✓ | Weekly | 2.5% | 0.55 | -7.9% | 52.4% | 21 | -1.0% |
| 4 | Volatility Regime (VIX-style) ✓ | Weekly | 1.6% | 0.54 | -4.7% | 56.1% | 41 | -1.9% |
| 5 | Ichimoku Cloud ✓ | Weekly | 2.3% | 0.52 | -15.4% | 39.3% | 28 | -1.2% |
| 6 | Linear Regression Slope ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.52 | -9.2% | 51.9% | 27 | -1.2% |
| 7 | Correlation Trend ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.52 | -9.2% | 51.9% | 27 | -1.2% |
| 8 | Hull MA 20/80 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 2.1% | 0.52 | -6.9% | 60.0% | 25 | -1.4% |
| 9 | RSI (25) ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.52 | -12.1% | 45.9% | 37 | -1.1% |
| 10 | Williams %R ✓ | Weekly | 1.5% | 0.51 | -5.3% | 90.0% | 30 | -2.0% |
| 11 | SMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 2.4% | 0.51 | -12.1% | 64.7% | 17 | -1.1% |
| 12 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 2.2% | 0.51 | -9.1% | 45.5% | 22 | -1.3% |
| 13 | Chande Kroll Stop ✓ | Weekly | 2.7% | 0.51 | -16.9% | 46.2% | 52 | -0.8% |
| 14 | Ehlers Roofing Filter ✓ | Weekly | 1.9% | 0.51 | -5.9% | 60.0% | 20 | -1.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on TIPS (TIP)
4 of 620 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on TIPS (TIP) outright. Another 160 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 34 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chande Kroll Stop | 1 | none needed | 6.67× |
| FRAMA 10/30 Cross | 1 | none needed | 8.05× |
| Disparity (50) | 1 | none needed | 11.34× |
| Markov Regime | 1 | none needed | 7.09× |
| Trend Regularity Adaptive MA | — | 1.83× | 8.52× |
| Hammer | — | 2.04× | 44.17× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For TIPS (TIP), KAMA 100 Trend on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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