The best indicator for Short VIX (SVXY)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Short VIX (SVXY) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Short VIX (SVXY) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
FRAMA 30 Trend
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Short VIX (SVXY) over ~14.7 years — beating buy-and-hold by 9.6% CAGR.
Short VIX (SVXY) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Short VIX (SVXY) — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.9% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FRAMA 30 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 20.6% | 0.85 | -38.0% | 62.9% | 62 | 9.6% |
| 2 | True Strength Index ✓ | Daily | 20.7% | 0.79 | -36.1% | 43.6% | 140 | 8.9% |
| 3 | Hull MA Trend ✓ | Daily | 20.1% | 0.74 | -39.8% | 51.9% | 183 | 8.3% |
| 4 | Hull MA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Daily | 19.3% | 0.74 | -38.3% | 50.0% | 172 | 7.5% |
| 5 | MACD ✓ | Daily | 18.4% | 0.73 | -38.7% | 50.0% | 142 | 6.7% |
| 6 | MACD-V ✓ | Daily | 17.9% | 0.72 | -37.5% | 49.3% | 136 | 6.1% |
| 7 | Schaff Trend Cycle ✓ | Weekly | 4.5% | 0.72 | -8.8% | 64.7% | 17 | -6.4% |
| 8 | Waddah Attar Explosion ✓ | Weekly | 9.8% | 0.71 | -29.7% | 66.7% | 36 | -1.1% |
| 9 | TEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 16.1% | 0.69 | -40.2% | 50.6% | 83 | 4.4% |
| 10 | Perfect Trend Line ✓ | Weekly | 18.1% | 0.69 | -56.3% | 50.0% | 70 | 7.1% |
| 11 | Cascade Z-Score ✓ | Daily | 15.7% | 0.69 | -35.2% | 47.0% | 117 | 3.9% |
| 12 | Inverse Fisher RSI ✓ | Daily | 17.9% | 0.67 | -38.0% | 45.1% | 113 | 6.1% |
| 13 | RSI (7) ✓ | Weekly | 17.7% | 0.67 | -52.3% | 54.7% | 53 | 6.8% |
| 14 | Predictive Ranges | Weekly | 17.6% | 0.67 | -44.1% | 52.2% | 23 | 6.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Short VIX (SVXY)
17 of 563 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Short VIX (SVXY) outright. Another 261 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 163 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQE | 1 | 1.27× | 2.59× |
| Lorentzian Classification | 1 | 1.97× | 2.75× |
| FRAMA 30 Trend | 1 | 2.03× | 4.39× |
| DMI Direction | 1 | 2.73× | 6.86× |
| DEMA 20/50 Cross | 1 | none needed | 3.85× |
| Fisher Transform | 1 | none needed | 3.19× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Short VIX (SVXY), FRAMA 30 Trend on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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