The best indicator for 3x S&P (SPXL)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real 3x S&P (SPXL) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where 3x S&P (SPXL) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Stoch RSI (fast)
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for 3x S&P (SPXL) over ~18.0 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 4.6% CAGR.
3x S&P (SPXL) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for 3x S&P (SPXL) — trailing buy-and-hold by 18.5% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stoch RSI (fast) ✓ | Weekly | 24.3% | 0.92 | -45.2% | 64.3% | 98 | -4.6% |
| 2 | Delta Volume (CVD proxy) ✓ | Weekly | 29.6% | 0.9 | -51.0% | 62.5% | 40 | 0.8% |
| 3 | Fractal Adaptive MA ✓ | Weekly | 21.1% | 0.86 | -52.6% | 61.3% | 106 | -7.7% |
| 4 | KDJ ✓ | Weekly | 20.6% | 0.85 | -31.2% | 55.9% | 93 | -8.2% |
| 5 | Chaikin Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 27.2% | 0.84 | -51.0% | 60.6% | 33 | -1.6% |
| 6 | Relative Volatility Index ✓ | Weekly | 26.5% | 0.84 | -46.6% | 51.6% | 31 | -2.4% |
| 7 | FRAMA 10/30 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 20.8% | 0.84 | -42.9% | 70.7% | 75 | -8.0% |
| 8 | A/D Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 27.2% | 0.84 | -51.0% | 60.6% | 33 | -1.6% |
| 9 | Coppock (fast) ✓ | Weekly | 25.5% | 0.83 | -53.4% | 59.1% | 22 | -3.3% |
| 10 | Chande Kroll Stop ✓ | Weekly | 27.9% | 0.82 | -61.7% | 63.2% | 38 | -0.9% |
| 11 | Cutler's RSI ✓ | Weekly | 23.2% | 0.8 | -43.1% | 65.0% | 40 | -5.6% |
| 12 | Net Volume ✓ | Weekly | 23.0% | 0.8 | -55.9% | 58.5% | 41 | -5.8% |
| 13 | ROC (14) ✓ | Weekly | 23.2% | 0.8 | -43.1% | 65.0% | 40 | -5.6% |
| 14 | CMO (14) ✓ | Weekly | 23.2% | 0.8 | -43.1% | 65.0% | 40 | -5.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on 3x S&P (SPXL)
18 of 557 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on 3x S&P (SPXL) outright. Another 200 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 266 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zero-Lag MACD | 2 | none needed | 2.18× |
| Connors RSI | 1 | none needed | 2.97× |
| Chaikin Oscillator | 1 | none needed | 1.97× |
| Chande Kroll Stop | 1 | none needed | 1.64× |
| Ehlers SuperSmoother | 1 | none needed | 2.16× |
| Intraday Momentum Index | 1 | none needed | 1.98× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For 3x S&P (SPXL), Stoch RSI (fast) on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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