The best indicator for Semiconductors (SOXX)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Semiconductors (SOXX) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Where Semiconductors (SOXX) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Linear Regression Slope
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Semiconductors (SOXX) over ~25.0 years — beating buy-and-hold by 1.5% CAGR.
Semiconductors (SOXX) on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Semiconductors (SOXX) — trailing buy-and-hold by 3.0% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linear Regression Slope ✓ | Weekly | 15.7% | 0.79 | -33.5% | 60.0% | 25 | 1.5% |
| 2 | Correlation Trend ✓ | Weekly | 15.7% | 0.79 | -33.5% | 60.0% | 25 | 1.5% |
| 3 | Coppock Curve ✓ | Weekly | 15.0% | 0.76 | -36.8% | 60.9% | 23 | 0.9% |
| 4 | LSMA 100 Trend ✓ | Weekly | 11.9% | 0.75 | -28.4% | 52.3% | 44 | -2.2% |
| 5 | SMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 14.6% | 0.75 | -33.5% | 64.7% | 17 | 0.5% |
| 6 | Donchian Breakout ✓ | Weekly | 12.8% | 0.74 | -32.6% | 58.8% | 17 | -1.4% |
| 7 | Hull Suite ✓ | Weekly | 14.1% | 0.74 | -36.8% | 52.2% | 23 | -0.0% |
| 8 | WMA 10/40 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 13.9% | 0.74 | -39.1% | 57.9% | 19 | -0.2% |
| 9 | SMA 50/200 Cross ✓ | Daily | 14.8% | 0.73 | -34.3% | 68.8% | 16 | 0.6% |
| 10 | Ichimoku TK Cross ✓ | Weekly | 13.7% | 0.72 | -33.6% | 57.7% | 26 | -0.5% |
| 11 | MAMA / FAMA ✓ | Weekly | 14.0% | 0.72 | -38.8% | 54.5% | 22 | -0.1% |
| 12 | Std Error Channel ✓ | Weekly | 12.8% | 0.72 | -32.4% | 51.8% | 56 | -1.3% |
| 13 | WMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 14.9% | 0.77 | -33.5% | 64.3% | 14 | 0.8% |
| 14 | Awesome Oscillator ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.71 | -47.0% | 56.5% | 23 | -0.7% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Semiconductors (SOXX)
0 of 627 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Semiconductors (SOXX) outright. Another 378 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 221 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sine-Weighted MA | — | 1.89× | 2.53× |
| QQE | — | 1.26× | 2.34× |
| Trend Regularity Adaptive MA | — | 1.42× | 3.05× |
| Zero-Lag MACD | — | 1.44× | 2.3× |
| Williams %R (28) | — | 1.47× | 2.28× |
| Williams %R (50) | — | 1.52× | 2.71× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Semiconductors (SOXX), Linear Regression Slope on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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