The best indicator for Dividend Aristocrats
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Dividend Aristocrats history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Dividend Aristocrats stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Zero-Lag LSMA
On the weekly chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Dividend Aristocrats over ~13.0 years — trailing buy-and-hold by 2.1% CAGR.
Dividend Aristocrats on the weekly chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
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The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zero-Lag LSMA ✓ | Weekly | 7.9% | 0.89 | -11.8% | 60.5% | 38 | -2.1% |
| 2 | Twiggs Money Flow ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.7 | -13.8% | 60.0% | 30 | -1.9% |
| 3 | Adaptive Supertrend ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.67 | -17.4% | 66.7% | 18 | -2.9% |
| 4 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 7.4% | 0.65 | -16.1% | 43.3% | 30 | -2.8% |
| 5 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Weekly | 5.4% | 0.62 | -23.6% | 80.0% | 30 | -4.6% |
| 6 | Accumulation/Distribution ✓ | Weekly | 7.0% | 0.62 | -16.1% | 58.1% | 31 | -2.9% |
| 7 | QQE ✓ | Weekly | 8.0% | 0.62 | -22.3% | 54.1% | 37 | -2.0% |
| 8 | DEMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Daily | 5.2% | 0.61 | -15.2% | 47.2% | 53 | -5.0% |
| 9 | Least Squares MA ✓ | Weekly | 5.2% | 0.61 | -17.0% | 54.0% | 50 | -4.7% |
| 10 | Predictive Ranges ✓ | Weekly | 6.8% | 0.61 | -23.6% | 65.0% | 20 | -3.1% |
| 11 | TRIX ✓ | Daily | 5.3% | 0.6 | -18.3% | 53.5% | 86 | -4.9% |
| 12 | DeMarker (21) ✓ | Daily | 5.2% | 0.6 | -13.6% | 46.8% | 126 | -5.0% |
| 13 | HMA 9/21 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 5.2% | 0.6 | -12.2% | 52.1% | 48 | -4.8% |
| 14 | DeMarker ✓ | Daily | 5.0% | 0.59 | -17.6% | 84.6% | 39 | -5.2% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Dividend Aristocrats
1 of 548 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Dividend Aristocrats outright. Another 233 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 89 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEMA 20/50 Cross | 1 | none needed | 9.35× |
| QQE | — | 1.31× | 7.35× |
| Detrended Price Osc. | — | 1.56× | 7.64× |
| Demand Index | — | 1.84× | 9.21× |
| Parabolic SAR (fast) | — | 1.96× | 8.31× |
| Chande-Kroll Stop (fast) | — | 1.99× | 8.27× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Dividend Aristocrats, Zero-Lag LSMA on the weekly timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It still trailed buy-and-hold on raw return — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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